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a more aggressive competitor in its efforts made to sell more gas to non-European countries, including China. Turkmen gas shipments to Iraq, via swap arrangements with Iran, look like they could start in the near future, but the big opportunity, namely breaking into the South Asian market by building a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, appears to be in serious trouble.
Dealing with neighbouring Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, given its enduring difficulties with security, remain problematic and are not helped by the challenge to Central Asian water security, particularly that of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, posed by the Taliban’s Qosh Tepa Canal, which, when fully constructed, will start drawing up to 20% of the water from one of Central Asia’s great rivers, the Amu-Darya along the border.
As regards geopolitics, Turkey’s attempts to build up trade and influence in Central Asia via the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) bear watching, with Russia struggling to maintain its standing given its intense political and economic engagement in addressing the Ukraine conflict.
Where the climate crisis is concerned, Turkmenistan, which will be threatened by critical levels of desertification and the shrinking Caspian Sea if things get out of hand, could make some international friends by this year delivering on promises to cut down on its “super-emissions” of methane.
3.2 Macro – Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan can anticipate growth of 6.3% in both 2024 and 2025, according
to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Turkmenistan: Main macroeconomic indicators
Source: EBRD Transition Report 2024-2025
The lender said while summarising parts of the latest edition of its Regional Economic Prospects report, released in late September: “Turkmenistan’s economy has shown stability in recent years. The EBRD cites investment in public infrastructure projects, production facilities and fixed capital investment as key growth factors. The launch of a new single window for export-import operations has improved Turkmenistan’s customs efficiency and simplified transit procedures, enabling higher freight turnover. This has led to the
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