Page 13 - bneIntelliNews Small Stans & Mongolia Outlook 2025

The commitment to fighting corruption will remain an essential matter for the public and new “grand coalition” government in 2025. In 2022, large-scale protests were sparked by revelations that $11bn had been siphoned off of coal exports to China by corrupt officials.
The conclusion of Hess was that “Mongolia deserves Western support in protecting its democracy and diversifying its economy. But if its government seeks to engineer short-term wealth by snatching assets away from the foreign investors who are key to enabling its growth and development, such backing is sure to fall by the wayside. Mongolians did not choose their geography, but it need not define their destiny.”
Another clear danger to Mongolian prosperity is the growing impacts of the climate crisis. In December in a new paper, the ADB urged the northeast Asian country to develop heat-resilient infrastructure, such as roads and buildings designed to cope with temperature fluctuations, and promote climate-smart agriculture. In November, the World Bank's Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report said Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both climate change impacts and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy.
In the energy and technology transitions, Mongolia, meanwhile, continues to attract strong interest from foreign investors as a rich, still relatively little-explored source of transition metals and rare earths.
4.2 Macro – Mongolia
Mongolia is on course for GDP growth of 5.5% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections released in October following a staff visit.
The World Bank predicts 5.3% and 6.5%, respectively and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) 5.5% and 6%, respectively. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) sees 5% in 2024, followed by 8% in 2025.
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