Page 51 - bne magazine February 2024_20240206

bne February 2024 Eastern Europe I 51
However, the technology sanctions have had an impact, albeit imperfect, KSE said.
“Russia has not been able to find substitutes for many products from coalition countries, in particular advanced electronics, as the continued involvement of these producers shows. This means that, fundamentally, the potential of export controls to significantly curtail Russia’s ability to wage its war of aggression on Ukraine remains intact. However, major changes to the current enforcement approach are needed to improve their effectiveness,” KSE added.
Most of the technology is arriving via countries that have refused to participate in the Western-led sanctions on Russia and have maintained commercial ties with Russia. The technology sanctions have largely failed as Russia reportedly imported more technology in 2023 than it did pre-war, much of which is being used by its military-industrial complex. If anything, Russia’s capacity to manufacture missiles and drones appears to have increased in 2023, according to KSE.
According to estimates from the Ukrainian government, missile production capacities have also been expanded from ~50 units per month in 2022 to ~100 in mid-2023 and ~115 by the end of 2023.
Russia’s ability to manufacture more missiles has allowed the Kremlin to launch a barrage of missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks – the biggest since the start of the war almost two years ago. According to estimates from the Ukrainian government, missile production capacities have
also been expanded from ~50 units per month in 2022 to ~100 in mid-2023 and ~115 by the end of 2023.
“Investigations reveal that Russia is actively developing new capabilities in preparation for an extended conflict. Satellite imagery has shown the construction of new facilities dedicated to aircraft repair, missile production, drone assembly, and other military purposes,” KSE reports. “For instance, aircraft plants in Kazan and Irkutsk have been expanded in recent months, which focus on Su-30 fighter jets – a pivotal aircraft type within
Russia war Imports in January-October 2023 by country of origin
Source: KSE Institute.
Russia war Imports in January-October 2023 by country of seller
Source: KSE Institute.
Russia war Imports in January-October 2023 by country of dispatch
Source: KSE Institute.
Ukraine War Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine in 2023
Sources: Air Force of Ukraine, KSE Institute.
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