Page 64 - bne monthly magazine October 2022

64 I Eurasia bne October 2022
President Tokayev meeting business leaders on September 9. / Akorda.
Kazakhstan: Political reset or more old-style authoritarianism?
to get themselves in shape to run a competitive contest.
Tokayev is selling both elections
as planks of a political reset whose urgency felt strong following fatal civil unrest in early January that has come to be known as Bloody January. Much of the anger seen in those events was fuelled by the monopolisation of power under Nursultan Nazarbayev, Tokayev’s now disgraced predecessor.
Pundits are cynical about whether the plebiscites will be sufficient to ensure a clean break with the authoritarian past.
“Democratisation and political competition are not at the core of Tokayev’s agenda,” Sofya du Boulay,
an Almaty-based political scientist specialising in authoritarianism and Central Asia, told Eurasianet. “Tokayev’s announcement of the early presidential election signals his lack of impetus for political change from his autocratic predecessor.”
Calling early elections will prevent oppo- sition from organising, analysts say.
“He called the snap elections [so as]
not to allow time for the consolidation of any opposition forces,” said Nargis Kassenova, director of the Program on Central Asia at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, offering two interpretations for that move. “He does not want to deal with genuine opposition rivals, and the
Joanna Lillis for Eurasianet
As Kazakhstan heads for snap presidential and parliamentary elections, voters have every right to feel confused.
Incumbent President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will run in, and almost certainly win with ease, the poll he has called for this autumn, 18 months before schedule. But voters have no sense of what alternatives there will be on offer.
Decades of meddling and repression by the authorities have reduced the political scene to a desolate space devoid of robust opposition figures.
It isn’t even certain how long a term Tokayev is poised to win. The limit is now five years, but Tokayev has said this will change to a single seven-year term.
It is no easier to understand what
is happening in the parliamentary elections, which have been called for
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the first half of 2023, three years ahead of schedule.
Reformists in government insist that electors will be offered rich pickings for the first time in years. Despite that pledge, no new parties have been regis- tered since the authorities promised to
“The limit is now five years, but Tokayev has said this will change to a single seven-year term”
ease the registration process. As things stand, only the ruling Amanat party (formerly Nur Otan) and a handful of government-loyal parties, some posing as opposition, are on the menu.
Government insiders insist registrations will happen in time, although if new parties were to appear immediately, they would have only about six months
intention is to keep the political scene under tight control. Or he is ready for some liberalisation, but not now in this particular, very difficult and delicate, moment in the country’s history.” [Editor’s note: Kassenova is a member of Eurasianet’s board of trustees.]
As motives for holding elections earlier rather than later, analysts point to the