Page 66 - bne monthly magazine October 2022

66 I Eurasia bne October 2022
insecure geopolitical situation owing to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the potential for Kazakhstan’s economic position to deteriorate.
But many believe domestic political sensitivities are uppermost in Tokayev’s mind.
Nazarbayev’s political standing was dealt a mortal blow by the January bloodshed, which Tokayev has depicted as a bid to topple him by mounting
does not succeed,” Junisbai said. “This consideration imposes a massive constraint on his ability to carry out rapid political reforms.”
By this reasoning, it might be an inevi- table necessity that reforms proceed more slowly than many would desire.
“If this helps him consolidate his position vis-à-vis the Old Guard, I think that’s a step in the right direction, even if it’s a frustrating half-step,” Junisbai said.
he served two five-year terms, but a few months later.
But there is nothing to stop him or future presidents tinkering with the constitution again to prolong their rule, since they change the law “like gloves,” as one caustic commentator put it on Instagram.
The person had a point: Tokayev pushed through amendments to the constitution in June, and now wants to alter it again.
Kassenova is prepared to give Tokayev the benefit of the doubt on his reform agenda, while acknowledging its limitations.
“I think he is sincere in his desire to carry out political reforms, but the goal is not full-fledged democratisation and political pluralism,” she told Eurasianet. “The objective is to transform the system created during the Nazarbayev period, which is easy to steer but inefficient and excessively corrupt, and improve the quality of governance by removing the extravagant super- presidential features, rearranging
the functions and powers among institutions, creating better vertical and horizontal connections, and bringing new people in.”
In the short term, his vision may fall short of free and fair elections featuring robust opposition, not least because
of “the systematic destruction of opposition” over decades, which cannot be set right in a few weeks,
said du Boulay.
Joanna Lillis is a journalist based in Almaty and author of Dark Shadows: Inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan.
This article originally appeared on Eurasianet.
“Nazarbayev’s political standing was dealt
a mortal blow by the January bloodshed, which Tokayev has depicted as a bid to topple him by mounting a coup d’etatpage 68”
a coup d’etat. Tokayev has refused to name names, but suspicions persist that Nazarbayev cronies were involved.
Nazarbayev has since been stripped of his powers, while family members and associates have lost political positions and been forced to cede some economic assets.
Although Tokayev quickly regained the upper hand, Nazarbayev’s relatives and associates nevertheless retain enormous economic resources and some influence.
Azamat Junisbai, a professor research- ing post-Soviet transitions at California’s Pitzer College, speculated that Tokayev may have called snap elections to neutralise further threats from these quarters and consolidate his power before they can regroup.
Some in Nazarbayev’s inner circle “have experienced a previously unimaginable reversal of fortunes. However, they continue to have massive resources at their disposal,” Junisbai told Eurasianet.
“It is logical to expect that they are unhappy with the new status quo.
I believe that Tokayev’s first priority is ensuring that another coup attempt
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Tokayev has explained his plan to increase the presidential term from five to seven years but limit leaders to one spell in office, replacing the two currently permitted five year terms, as a bid to prevent the type of monopolisation of power that kept Nazarbayev at the helm for three decades.
But prominent analyst Dosym Satpayev has decried this proposal as something reminiscent of the power-clinging trickery deployed by Nazarbayev.
After January, “Tokayev said it was necessary to overhaul the current political system and the old rules of the game,” Satpayev said during a recent discussion uploaded to YouTube. “The emphasis was placed on the need to create absolutely new political tools, but we now see that these tools have not changed much.”
Tokayev has repeatedly promised not to seek more than the allotment of two terms allowed by the current constitution.
If he sticks to that pledge, even if he is elected for a seven-year term this year, he would be due to leave office in 2029, the same year he would have left had