Page 68 - bne monthly magazine October 2022

68 I Eurasia bne October 2022
“We want to sign a paper, as a result of which we will be criticised, scolded, called traitors, even the people may decide to remove us from power. But we will be grateful if as a result of this Armenia receives lasting peace and security on an area of 29,800 square kilometers. I made a clear decision,
I don’t care what happens to me. I care what happens to Armenia,” said Pashinyan.
Later, he appeared to reverse his position, writing on his Facebook
supply, the sides met in Brussels on April 6. European Council President Charles Michel, who is meditating the talks, said they had "agreed to instruct ministers of foreign affairs to work on the preparation of a future peace treaty, which would address all necessary issues".
After the second meeting in Brussels on May 22 between Aliyev and Pashinyan, there seemed to be a breakthrough; the border delimitation and demarcation commissions met on the border.
leaders. However, on September 7, during a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Russia, Pashinyan revealed that they "did not manage to register common positions on the most important issues."
On September 13, Azerbaijan attacked again, but this time on Armenia's internationally recognised borders. Days prior to the escalation, Azerbaijan had repeatedly reported Armenian ceasefire violations, which Baku denied.
Azerbaijan's statement speculated that Armenia was using "provocations"
to slow down the finalisation of infrastructure projects carried out by Azerbaijan in the border areas and "maintain a tense atmosphere" near Azerbaijan's borders.
Russia's foreign ministry said the fighting had stopped under a Russia- brokered ceasefire reached at 10am Caucasus time on September 13. Still, shellings have been reported by the community leaders and residents of the Armenian villages on September 14. Even though Armenia appealed to the Russian-led CSTO for aid, its military allies have just agreed to send a fact- finding mission to the area, which will arrive next week.
Azerbaijan justified the war in 2020 in Nagorno-Karabakh by the lack of results through negotiations. Since then, the pattern of the Azerbaijani government's behaviour shows that they have understood that whatever couldn't be achieved on the negotiations table could be achieved through military force.
Nagorno-Karabakh, however, is a disputed territory, unlike Armenia. Until now, Azerbaijan refrained
from any major attacks, excluding some incursions by small troops,
into Armenian territory. Any further escalation could lead to a war where Russia needs to show up. In failing to do so, its relevance in South Caucasus would either be extremely weakened or vanish all together.
“Even before the five-point principles of the peace deal had been revealed, Azerbaijan escalated fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh as all attention was on Ukraine”
page, "no document has been signed and is not going to be signed. This is an information sabotage directed by unfriendly external forces to break the country's resistance."
Pattern of conflict
The pattern of negotiations and fighting this year illustrates the tactics Baku has used.
Azerbaijan revealed its five-point
plan in March, and Armenian officials said they accepted the principles. The terms are mutual recognition of each other's territorial integrity, which would amount to Armenia acknowledging Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh. However, Armenia proposed having
a different resolution to the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict.
Even before the five-point principles
of the peace deal had been revealed, Azerbaijan escalated fighting in Nagorno- Karabakh as all attention was on Ukraine, including and foremost, Russia's. Later
in mid-March, Azerbaijan closed the gas pipelines to Nagorno-Karabakh, causing a crisis in the cold weather.
Following the restoration of the gas
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Azerbaijan insisted on Armenian military forces' complete withdrawal from Karabakh. Although Armenia announced in July that they would not be sending new conscripts to Karabakh on August 3, Azerbaijan attacked Karabakh's Armenian-controlled territories and managed to capture some additional mountain heights.
Azerbaijan also demanded that Armenia use an alternative road to Karabakh and give up the Lachin corridor. The August fighting was concentrated in that exact area.
By the end of August, Azerbaijani forces had taken control of the Lachin corridor, the only overland link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
On August 31, Pashinyan and Aliyev held another negotiation in Brussels. Michel reported that the sides agreed on instructing the foreign ministers
to meet within one month to work on draft texts. This month, both countries' leaders said a deal could come within
a matter of months.
The next meeting was scheduled in November for the two countries'