Page 70 - bne monthly magazine October 2022

70 Opinion
bne October 2022
The fragility of the balance of power in the region is worsening and could lead to a war bigger than the one in 2020. / bne IntelliNews COMMENT
Armenia-Azerbaijan military escalation is a test for Russian status quo in the region
Denis Cenusa in Germany
Afresh outbreak of military hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out on September 13, leaving more than 150 dead, including Armenian civilians. Unlike in previous clashes, the current tensions involve the national territory of Armenia (Sotk, Jermuk and Goris areas), not the disputed region of Karabakh. This showdown reveals that the fragility of the balance of power in the region is worsening and could lead to a war bigger than the one in 2020.
Flaws in Russia's military strategy regarding Ukraine could play a catalytic role in making that happen, especially if Russia's military and political morale declines further. But it is difficult to attribute a direct causal relationship between the events in the Ukraine and the South Caucasus, even if there is some degree of time overlap. In any case, if Russia does not restore the perception that it is a strong military power, it will face an imminent review of its relevance in maintaining peace and stability in Karabakh.
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Overstretched beyond its current military strategic means, Russia’s geopolitical weight is diminishing under the cumula- tive effects of the Western sanctions and the damaged image of its military powerhouse. By prioritising the Ukrainian theatre, Moscow is finding it harder to micro-manage the complicated relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The three arrangements that Vladimir Putin negotiated between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev in 2020-21 are working only partly, being challenged regularly by violations from both sides.
Pashinyan has given a positive appreciation of the activity of the Russian peacekeepers deployed since 2020 in the Kara- bakh region but just six days later the shelling between Azeri and Armenian sides restarted on 13 September. Similarly, Aliyev has reiterated Azerbaijan’s commitment to fulfil the Russia-brokered trilateral declarations. These refer to the returning of some lands under the Azeri control, as well as the approval of the initially five-year long presence of 1,960