Page 72 - bne monthly magazine October 2022

72 Opinion
bne October 2022
There are several ways to explain the ongoing hostilities. Some might say that there are no controls preventing Baku from engaging in militaristic behaviour. Others might claim that there are saboteurs around Pashinyan from the military ranks that he is not aware of and that they are instrumen- talising these hostilities to prevent the government from recognising the Soviet borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. In any case, the current status quo is in jeopardy. The lack of evidence makes finding a clear answer quite difficult.
In fact, another war between the two countries is not ruled out, but if such a scenario comes to life, an exhausted Russia and a hesitant CSTO will have to face Azerbaijan. Consequently, this will lead to the participation of Turkey, which has already helped Baku in 2020.
Russians routed in Ukraine, but is Putin in danger of losing power?
Ben Aris in Berlin
Exactly 200 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the defenders of the country managed to pull off
a stunning rout of Russia’s forces, retaking an estimated 3,000 square kilometres of territory right up to the Russian border.
The war is not over, but a classic feint that threatened the central city of Kherson drew off Russian forces from Donbas, where Kyiv concentrated its best troops and modern US weapons to strike a hammer blow that scattered Russian defenders and caused chaos.
Social media rapidly filled with emotional footage of local residents rushing out to meet the advancing Ukrainian forces with cheers, flags and tears of relief as they were liberated.
Basking in the success of the counter-offensive, Ukraine's Defence Ministry wryly commented on Russia's abandonment of its military hardware as it retreated in disarray.
"Russia is trying to maintain its status as the largest supplier of military equipment for the Ukrainian army, and even to improve its status, knowing that lend-lease will soon come into effect."
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The current hostilities in the South Caucasus are definitely testing the Russian status quo in the region, but radical changes in the balance of power will only be associated with an all-out war between the two sides. In order not to turn against each other as the intended consequence of such a war, Russia and Turkey, whose alliance is growing, will have to take a step before the tipping point is reached.
Denis Cenusa is a Political Risk Analyst, Associated Expert at the Center for Eastern European Studies (Lithuania) and the think- tank “Expert-Grup” (Moldova). His main research focus lies in the EU's external governance, energy security, geoeconomics and crisis management in the post-Soviet space.
Russia has been humiliated after Ukraine routed its forces. Will that spark a backlash against Putin that could see him ousted from power? / bne IntelliNews
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has turned into an abject failure, but does it threaten his position?
“No exaggeration to say that the apparent scale of the collapse of the Russian army poses potentially the biggest threat to Putin’s rule since he came to power 22 years ago. Hardliners are furious, security chiefs unwilling to be made scapegoats. Next week [could] be very interesting,” Marc Bennetts, the Times correspondent in Moscow, tweeted.
Social media was abuzz after municipal deputies in the Moscow district of Lomonosovsky publicly called for Putin to resign and called him a “traitor” in a statement released online.
In a very rare public show of dissent, the deputies said that "everything went wrong" after Putin returned to his second term of office and that they believe a change of power is necessary for the sake of the country.
The deputies claim that Putin’s aggressive rhetoric and his subordinates have thrown Russia back into the Cold War era, in an assessment largely shared by Western commentators.