Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 07 2021

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

India has chance to ensure

coal never recovers

Coal has been the big loser of the COVID-19 driven fall in demand in India. The government
now has the opportunity reduce coal’s importance while still meeting recovering demand

INDIA INDIA’S coal-fired generation fell by 5% in 2020, senior analyst Aditya Lolla.
the second annual decline in a row, suggesting “It’s even possible coal will fall this decade, if
WHAT: that the COVID-19 inspired decline in demand India wants it to.”
India’s coal-fired for electricity could be a turning point in the
generation fell by 5% country’s transition away from its reliance on Policy choices
in 2020 the fuel. Indeed, India could face some tough policy
Coal was the generating fuel to be hit the choices if it is to meet rising demand for elec-
WHY: most by the fall in demand for electric, UK-based tricity over the coming decade, which is forecast
India’s coal-fired think-tank Ember said in a recent report. to average 4-5% per year, with renewables, and
generation fell by 5% It found that the country’s traditional power not with coal.
in 2020 generators, both state and private, face falling The report noted that Indian government
Plant Load Factors (PLF) and worsening finan- forecasts show coal-fired generation rising in
WHAT NEXT: cial prospects for fossil fuel generation. the next decade, with coal accounting for 29%
India could meet its Indeed, coal accounted for almost 100% of of 1,152 TWh of new power demand.
target of 450 GW of the fall in electricity demand in 2020, suggesting However, Ember said that COVID-19 had
green capacity by 2030 that it struggled to adapt to changing demand caused an 11% drop in projected electricity
while maintaining coal’s patterns, unlike the country’s solar and wind demand until 2030, putting demand growth at
decline if it implements capacity. 875 TWh between 2018 and 2030.
the right policies Looking ahead, the Indian government aim This would mean an average increase in elec-
to increase renewables’ share of the country’s tricity demand of 4-5% every year till 2030. If
electricity market over the next 10 years. The India delivers on its own wind and solar genera-
government wants to achieve 175 GW of renew- tion targets in the next 10 years, this will lead to a
able capacity by 2022 and reach 450 GW by 2030. relatively small increase of 52 TWh in coal-fired
However, meeting the 175-GW target for generation by FY 2029-30.
2022 would require generation to reach 275 To achieve this, India must meet wind and
TWh, while green output in 2020 was less than solar generation targets. India’s combined wind
half of that at 118 TWh. and solar generation in 2020 was 118 TWh, the
report said. This is some way off the govern-
5% fall ment’s targets of 274 TWh in 2021-22 and 793
The report found that the 5% drop in coal-gener- TWh in 2029-30. Indeed, India is at an immedi-
ated power was the result of both falling demand ate high risk of not meeting its 2022 target.
a steady increase in solar generation. The 5% On India’s side are forecasts from the Inter-
decrease follows a 3% fall in 2019, caused by a national Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent India
stuttering economy. Energy Outlook 2021. This said that coal-fired
Nevertheless, coal still accounted for 948 generation in India might plateau even if India
TWh, or 71% of India’s electricity output, in pursues higher rates of economic growth.
2020. The IEA also forecast that coal-fired gener-
Coal-fired output fell by 51 TWh, or 5%, bal- ation could fall by 2030 if New Delhi promotes
anced by a 36-TWh (3%) contraction in electric- green energy and cuts emissions aggressively.
ity demand and a 12-TWh (26%) rise in solar A second factor is that India’s coal-fired
generation. power plants are becoming increasingly une-
The report said that the Indian government’s conomic, while the government is considering
green energy plans could mean that coal genera- imposing a ban on new coal.
tion will never again achieve the level it reached This could mean that India’s on-grid coal
in 2018 capacity will actually peak within the next 5
“As India recovers from the COVID-19 pan- years, if India delivers on its commitments to
demic shock, the choices it makes for its power close older coal power plants and does not build
sector can make or break its coal-to-clean elec- new coal power plants beyond those currently
tricity transition in the next decade,” said Ember under construction.

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 07 17•February•2021