Page 5 - Poland Outlook 2022

likely after it.

The far-right Konfederacja averages 9% while Lewica – which could join the
liberals in the possible future government if PiS loses – lingers at 7%. The
agrarian Polish People’s Party is at 4%, just under the 5% threshold needed to
win mandates in the parliament. Support for other parties is smaller than the
statistical margin of error in the polls.

3.0 Macro Economy

Poland key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Real GDP (%) 3.1 4.8 5.4 4.7 -2.5 5.3 4.6

Inflation (CPI, avg) -0.6 2 1.6 2.3 3.4 5 6

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 8.9 7.3 6.1 5.4 5.9 6 5.5

Retail sales growth (%) 3.7 8.2 7.9 6.7 -2.3 10.1 6.2

Industrial output growth (%) 2.9 6.5 6 4.3 -1 13.5 5.8

Private consumption growth (%) 4 4.7 4.5 3.9 -3.1 5.7 4.7

Investment growth (%) -8.2 4 9.4 6.1 -9.6 6.7 6.3

Trade balance (% of GDP) 0.5 -0.1 -1.2 0.2 2.4 0.4 -0.3

Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.8 -0.3 -1.3 0.5 3.5 -1.1 -0.6

Budget balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -7 -2.1 -3.3

Public debt (% of GDP) 54.2 50.6 48.8 45.6 57.5 56.1 55

EUR/PLN (avg) 4.36 4.26 4.26 4.29 4.44 4.59 4.57

USD/PLN (avg) 3.94 3.78 3.61 3.84 3.9 3.96 4.01

Central bank policy rate (avg) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 2.6

3m interbank offer rate (avg) 1.7 1.73 1.71 1.72 0.66 0.79 3.4

2y yield (avg) 1.64 1.86 1.57 1.56 0.47 1 3

5y yield (avg) 2.35 2.77 2.5 1.92 0.94 1.7 3.1

10y yield (avg) 3.04 3.43 3.21 2.33 1.51 2.1 3.05

Source: Erste

5 Poland Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com