Page 43 - bneIntelliNews monthly country report Russia May 2024

of 2022 reached 27.7% of GDP with an average indicator of 27.5% for 2011-2022. In monetary terms, exports of goods (91% in the structure of external supplies) and services from Russia in 2023 decreased by 27% year-on-year – to $465.4 billion. This happened due to the redirection of a significant part of the export, mainly raw materials, to the markets of friendly countries — the share of the Russian oil and gas sector in GDP at the end of 2023 decreased to 16.5% compared to 18.8% in 2019. According to estimates by the Center for Strategic Research, the share of exports and imports to unfriendly countries decreased from 55% in 2021 to 16% in 2023, and imports – from 26% to 7%. It is predicted that by the end of the decade, Russia's trade turnover with these countries will fall fivefold. Additionally, last year, raw material revenues decreased amid negative market conditions in dollar prices and a slowdown in global trade (-5% year-on-year), despite the ruble's depreciation by 20% compared to the average value of 2022.
The share of imports in GDP recovered from a record low of 15% in 2022 to 19% in 2023 or 32 trillion rubles (in 2011-2021, the share of imports on average was more than 20%). Consequently, the share of net exports (exports minus imports) in the structure of GDP fell to a minimum since 1997 – 4.3% compared to 12.8% in 2022. Vladimir Putin previously instructed the government to reduce the share of imports to 17% of GDP and increase non-raw material non-energy exports from the country by two-thirds by 2030. According to Maxim Oreshkin, this will allow Russian companies to occupy the vacated niches in the domestic market, "reclaiming" about 3.5 trillion rubles from foreign companies.
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting emphasises that the historical decrease in the share of exports was also influenced by the factor of domestic demand recovery due to increased government investments, including expenditures on defence, industry, the construction sector, and major infrastructure projects. Thanks to this, in 2023, Russia demonstrated one of the highest economic growth rates (+3.6% year-on-year) among the G20 countries.
43 RUSSIA Country Report May 2024 www.intellinews.com