Page 45 - bneIntelliNews monthly country report Russia May 2024

3.2 Macro outlook
The Finance Ministry published the results of a stress test at the end of April that used a scenario for 2024 of almost zero growth in GDP and household incomes, Reuters reported Wednesday. The scenario presumed the ruble going as low as 97 against the US dollar. As a result of this hugely pessimistic scenario, the ministry said the exchange rate would average 106.9 rubles against the US dollar in 2025. It also predicted that, in 2025, the price of a barrel of Russian oil would fall to $51.8 and GDP growth would be 0.2% (the baseline forecast is 2.3%).
IMF’s latest set of forecasts for Emerging Europe in April and Russia is looking good.. First, the IMF expects Poland and Croatia to be the only CEE economies to grow at 3.0% or more this year. This is in line with our view that both will outperform the region.
Second, the IMF does not expect a material slowdown in Turkey. Its GDP forecasts over 2024-29 are all above 3.0%, while we think policy tightening will cause a larger slowdown this year and to 2.3% in 2025.
Third, the IMF upgraded its 2024 growth forecast for Russia sharply, from 1.1% to 3.2%. This upgrade is important because many analysts think that Russia simply cannot grow at more than 2.0% for too long. We think it can (at least temporarily) amid a larger war effort and our 3.5% growth forecast is at the top
45 RUSSIA Country Report May 2024 www.intellinews.com