Page 46 - bneIntelliNews monthly country report Russia May 2024

of the consensus range, although this will intensify overheating pressures and keep inflation strong, says Capital Economics.
CBR said in its April macroeconomic survey that Russian growth will slow this year from 3.6% in 2023 to 2.2% this year.
Russian finance minister says GDP expected to grow 3.6% in 2024, matching 2023's rate. The announcement followed comments earlier in the week from finance ministry official Lev Denisov, who said that the initial 2.3% estimate would be revised upwards due to the "strong growth of the economy" at the beginning of 2024.
For 2023 PMI averaged ~54 - and 3.6% YY GDP growth is exactly in line with that. That said - PMI in 1Q24 is down to ~51.5 which suggests ~2.0-2.5% YY for 2024 vs IMF's 3.2
IMF's GDP 2024 growth forecast for Russia increased by 2ppt since Oct'23 and currently stands at 3.2% YoY - largest upside revision among major EMs over the period. Russia’s GDP is to grow 3.2% in 2024, exceeding the forecasted growth rates for the US (2.7%), the UK (0.5%), Germany (0.2%) and France (0.7%), according to IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook cited by NBC. While outperforming these Western economies, Russia will lag behind China and India in terms of economic growth (4.6% and 6.8%, respectively).
The Russian economy, despite a significant tightening of monetary policy, demonstrates high growth rates in 1Q24. Steady consumer demand is supported by rising wages, budget spending and consumer lending that accelerated further in March. Renaissance Capital is raising its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 to 2.3%, reducing it to 1.0% in 2025.
46 RUSSIA Country Report May 2024 www.intellinews.com