Page 47 - bneIntelliNews monthly country report Russia May 2024

The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
According to Rosstat, industrial production growth in March slowed to 4.0% y/y (after +6.6% in 2M24), which is slightly lower than our expectations and the market consensus forecast (4.9%, according to Interfax). The key reasons for the slowdown in growth rates are the dynamics of the base of last year, as well as the calendar factor. In February 2024 there were two working days and one calendar day more than in the corresponding month of 2023, in March 2024 there were two fewer working days. Adjusted for seasonality and calendar factors, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, growth compared to the previous month was 0.1% (after 1.3% in February).
The manufacturing industry continued to make a decisive contribution to the growth of industrial production (+6.0% y/y in February after +10.6% in 2M24), while the contribution of the mining industry was near zero (+0.4% y/y after 10. 6% for 2M24). Adjusted for seasonality and calendar factors, in March the industries showed an increase of 0.4% m/m and a decrease of 0.3% m/m, respectively (after +1.5% and +1.1% in February). In April, taking into account last year's base, industrial production growth may slow down further, despite the positive calendar factor.
47 RUSSIA Country Report May 2024 www.intellinews.com