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bne December 2020 Southeast Europe I 45
ruled the country for 30 years, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is another master of balancing with Belgrade’s ‘four pillars of foreign policy’. As bne IntelliNews’ Serbian correspondent noted, “Serbia’s long-lasting goal [is] to be an EU family member, the US’ friend, China’s brother and Russia’s kid all at the same time”.
This has been helpful at home too, allowing Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to keep on board those on the right and far right who see Russia
as Serbia’s most important ally and defender following the loss of Kosovo. At the same time, the SNS’ pursuit of EU accession gives it an advantage among another large swathe of voters, thereby allowing the party to dominate the parliament and domestic politics.
However, the balancing act is by no means easy, and it is set to get steadily more difficult as Serbia slowly but inexorably moves towards EU accession, stated by the government as its number
two countries to open embassies in Jerusalem and China with its position on Huawei.
Accommodating Russia
Then there are the countries that remain much more closely within the Russian sphere of influence; of the core of
five identified by Trenin, arguably the closest are Armenia and Belarus. This means that even when political leaders emerge that have a penchant for liberal democracy and all things Western, they have no choice but to stay on the right side of Russia as well.
As the Velvet Revolution protests raged in Yerevan in May 2018, bne IntelliNews columnist Emil Avdaliani pointed to the country’s dependence on Russia: “Yere- van is strongly aligned with Moscow, with the Russians controlling much of Armenia’s strategic infrastructure ... Distancing itself from Russia is difficult for Armenia to do because the country is sandwiched between the two enemies: Turkey and Azerbaijan.”
pushing for Alexander Lukashenko to acknowledge defeat and stand down.
Just like Pashinian, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Lukashenko’s rival who is believed to have taken the largest share of votes in the Belarusian election, has sought to reassure Moscow that
the ongoing protests are not in any way directed against Russia and do not have a geopolitical agenda.
"That was not the fight against Russia at any stage, and I am certain it will not be such," Tikhanovskaya said in a message entitled "To Russia" on her Telegram channel in September, as reported by Tass. She added that the people of Russia and Belarus “ have always been good neighbours and close friends" and that Belarusians want friendly relations with all their neighbours, while maintaining the sovereignty of their country. Despite this message, Tikhanovskaya and other high-profile Belarusian opposition leaders and activists were put on the police wanted list in Russia the following month.
Moldova is in a similar situation to Armenia or Belarus, as it has to have
a relationship with Russia, not just as one of the regional great powers but as
a country with a military presence on the ground in the eastern half of the country.
"Maia Sandu promised to the electorate that she will conduct a 'balanced foreign policy',” Denis Cenusa, associated
expert at Chisinau-based think-tank Expert-Grup, tells bne IntelliNews, noting this is not identical to a 'multi-vector' orientation. “Her position in this matter is that Moldova should continue European integration and have a constructive relationship with Moscow. That might be insufficient to have a welcoming Russia, which enjoyed a whole-hearted geopolitical loyalty from Igor Dodon.”
Don’t poke the bear
Popsoi elaborates on Sandu’s plans post-election, saying that alongside an overhaul of the justice system to root out endemic corruption, her presidency will be committed to the full implementation of Moldova’s EU Association Agreement followed by more advanced integration with the EU. Achieving this will,
“Serbia’s long-lasting goal [is] to be an EU family member, the US’ friend, China’s brother and Russia’s kid all at the same time"
one goal. Serbia already faces a backlash whenever it shifts the balance and moves closer to one or another of its partners, as shown by the responses
to the deal brokered by the US at
a summit with Belgrade and Pristina in Washington in September.
There was a crude response from Moscow, where foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova posted a picture of Vucic in the Oval Office alongside a shot from the 1992 erotic thriller Basic Instinct showing the actor Sharon Stone crossing her legs while being questioned – the famous scene that had teenage boys freeze-framing their VCRs to see if the actor was wearing underwear or not. (This was followed by a rare apology from the Kremlin.) The agreement also managed to irk the EU by committing the
As it became apparent that Armenia’s then president Serzh Sargsyan
would not be able to quell the Velvet Revolution without violently crushing the protests (which he was not prepared to do), Russian officials reached out to journalist-turned-protest leader Nikol Pashinian, even though he was exactly the type of example that the Kremlin didn’t want in its near neighbourhood. In turn, Pashinian was very quick to assure Moscow that the revolt did not have any geopolitical agenda and that under his rule there would be no fundamental shift in foreign policy.
More recently, mass protests have erupted in Belarus over the rigged August 9 presidential election. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have
been on the streets week after week
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