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46 I Southeast Europe bne December 2020
however, depend on Sandu’s ability to force snap elections and get a new government she can work with.
Moldovan voters want a balanced foreign policy, according to the PAS MP. “Voters overwhelmingly want to join the EU – recent polls show support is in the high 60s at the moment – but at the same time, they don’t want a worsening of relations with Russia,” he says.
Specifically, Moldovans don’t want the kind of artificial conflicts with Russia provoked by previous leaders to prove their pro-EU credentials and encourage Western leaders to overlook corruption and state capture, and continue sending financial aid to Moldova. Prime examples of this were the self-declared pro-Western governments controlled
by Plahotnuic, whose officials stirred
of economic opportunities at home that have promoted mass emigration, and more recently the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that spread rampantly with over 88,000 confirmed infections to date among a population of just over 4mn.
Results from the election show that
in the second round Sandu gained
an overwhelming majority among dias- pora voters, with long queues outside polling stations in embassies in Western countries. Dodon did better among Moldovans in the country, but she still appears to have eaten into Dodon’s base of ageing, socially conservative and Russian-oriented voters.
Many Moldovans are simply tired of geopolitics and, in Popsoi’s words, decided to “vote with their pocketbooks”
“People's interest is less about geopolitics unless this refers to European integration, which underpins the country's western orientation,” says Cenusa. “To compare what is
most important to the public – fighting corruption or good relations with Russia – then at present, the choice will fall on the former as it feels
urgent and overwhelming.”
There are more tangible problems facing everyday Moldovans on top
of corruption. “Moldova’s external orientation towards the West or Russia is the main reason for serious polarisation in the society. However, Maia Sandu built her campaign on solving common issues faced by
these two groups such as poverty, split families due to mass emigration, corruption and lack of trust in
the judicial system and all state institutions,” comments Belan.
“Solving such challenges to the
benefit of the regular people is only possible through, among others,
a balanced foreign policy that advances Moldovan exports, reduces country risks for foreign investors, and attracts international financial assistance for infrastructure and social programmes. This particular unifying message from Sandu’s campaign resonated strongly with the voters. Maia Sandu has the potential to bring Moldova out of many years of isolation and can normalise relations with Kyiv, Bucharest, the
EU and [international financial institutions].”
Sandu therefore has a mammoth task ahead of her, one that she can only begin properly if Moldova is to hold fresh elections that will deliver a new parliament with a majority that favours reforms over protecting the interests of its members. From then on there will
no doubt be political actors in Moldova who will seek to re-stir the geopolitical pot to try to thwart reforms, especially those in the justice system, that threaten their interests. At the same time, the new administration in Chisinau will have to delicately manage the country’s external relations to ensure these too
do not derail the planned reforms.
“We are committed to EU integration but we are eager to maintain good economic and political relations with Russia"
controversy with Russia and cultivated a public rivalry with Dodon (the two are believed to have been collaborating privately to keep out genuine opposition parties such as Sandu’s PAS).
Commenting on Moldova’s relationship with Russia, Popsoi says: “We certainly have major differences with Russia,
but also interests we have to defend: Moldovan workers in Russia, Moldovan citizens in Transnistria, we are dependent on Russia for energy. So
we need a balanced approach. We are committed to EU integration but we are eager to maintain good economic and political relations with Russia, because at the end of the day this is in the interests of the Moldova people.”
Beyond geopolitics
With the war in Transnistria now
a generation ago, Moldovans are less concerned about their country’s geopolitical position than about all the other problems besetting it: poverty, low living standards, lack
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instead. “Geopolitics is still important, but voters are tired of the geopolitical fight, the oversimplification of
the reality on the ground and the obfuscation of the economic reality,” he says. "Regardless of other considerations ... if the economy is doing well and salaries are growing, people are unlikely to protest and vote politicians out. [However] the economy has declined
as a result of COVID-19, and even without that it was in a bad situation, and most important was the element of corruption.” The stance of Sandu and her party as staunch fighters against corruption and promoters of integrity in public life are what Popsoi believes secured her victory on November 15.
Analysts agree on the importance of corruption as a political issue, several years on from the revelation of the “$1bn bank frauds” in which huge amounts of money were siphoned
off from three local banks in a scam that will eventually will be paid for by Moldovan taxpayers.