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bne December 2020 Eurasia I 61
In Karabakh deal, as many questions as answers
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later told Interfax that the centre would be “in the territory of Azerbaijan, it will not be in Karabakh, and it’s about a monitoring center” not peacekeepers. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan muddied the waters, announcing on November 11 that "Turkey will join the peacekeeping forces in the [Karabakh] region to monitor the implementation
of the deal with Russia.” Erdogan
said the centre in question would be
in “Azerbaijani territories that were liberated from Armenia's occupation.”
Displaced people
The agreement stipulates that “Internally displaced persons and
Joshua Kucera for Eurasianet
The peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan has stopped the bloodshed and averted a looming humanitarian catastrophe. Its wide- ranging provisions on shifts in territorial control, a Russian peacekeeping presence and new transportation routes promise to fundamentally reshape the political order of the South Caucasus.
But many questions remain about the Russia-brokered deal, and there are several potential pitfalls that could complicate its implementation and spoil the prospect for real peace between
the two sides. Here are some that have emerged since the deal was announced on November 10.
Status
Azerbaijani social media is now full of memes exulting that “Zero percent of my country is occupied by Armenia.”
It’s a play on previous, plaintive memes complaining that 20% of Azerbaijan was occupied by Armenia. (The real figure was closer to 14%, but leave that aside.)
It’s not quite true, though: At least in the short term, Armenians retain control
of the parts of Nagorno-Karabakh that had not been militarily retaken by Azerbaijani forces before the agreement was signed, including the regional capital of Stepanakert. The agreement doesn’t even mention the issue of the status of those areas and how that
will be decided. Will they stay under Armenian control? Will their status be determined by a referendum? Will they, too, pass to Azerbaijani control? It’s not even hinted at in the agreement.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, however, gloated after the agreement was announced: “What happened to the status? The status has gone to hell. No status. And there won't be any status. It won't happen as long as I am president.”
This suggests that not only would he not accept allowing them to remain long-term under Armenian control, but that he doesn’t envisage even autonomy under Azerbaijani control.
But Nina Caspersen, a scholar of the conflict, said that it appeared the agreement would allow for some kind of
“Many questions remain about the Russia- brokered deal, and there are several potential pitfalls that could complicate its implementation”
autonomous status within Azerbaijan. “However autonomy comes in many different forms,” she said shortly after the deal was signed that “Turkish military will work” in a peacekeeping centre that the agreement did mention. The Russian news agency Interfax reported, citing unnamed diplomatic sources, that the Russian and Turkish defence ministries signed an agreement creating a “joint ceasefire monitoring center” in Karabakh.
refugees shall return to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas under the supervision of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.” But does this mean just Azerbaijanis returning
to Azerbaijani-controlled territory and Armenians returning to Armenian- controlled territory? Or do the two sides envisage working on allowing displaced civilians from the other community back into their respective territories?
Children playing football in Kelbajar (Karvachar in Armenian) in Nagorno-Karabakh. Kelbajar was to be handed over by Armenian forces to Azerbaijan on November 15.
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