Page 63 - bneMag bne_December 2020_20201201

bne December 2020 Eurasia I 63
Among the complications, notes the International Crisis Group: “[T]here may well be competing property claims between [Armenians] and returning Azerbaijanis and given the high levels
of antipathy between the populations, now reinforced by the brutality of
recent weeks." ICG also noted that the UNHCR, despite having been cited in the agreement text, had not been consulted.
Boundaries
This is an issue if the territory that Armenia now controls remains under their control. The current de facto boundary between the two sides runs between Shusha and Stepanakert. These are only about 10 kilometres apart
and Armenian-controlled Stepanakert is straight downhill from Azerbaijan- controlled Shusha. Stepanakert will always be militarily vulnerable in this situation and its Armenian population will never feel entirely secure with Azerbaijani troops looming overhead.
None of this should be a significant security issue as long as the Russian peacekeepers are there to separate the two sides. But neither side is excited about the long-term presence of
Russian troops, who have a region-wide reputation for overstaying their welcome and operating under their own agenda. For now, their presence is vital (and, it has to be emphasised, no one else appears to be interested in doing it). But either they stay for ever, or the Armenians and Azerbaijanis have to work this out.
The Nakhchivan Corridor
This one is presumably further down the road, but it would seem to be fraught with potential complications. The agreement stipulates that “Armenia guarantees the security of transport links ... [for] unimpeded movement
of citizens, vehicles, and cargo in both directions” between mainland Azerbaijan and the exclave of Nakhchivan, which are separated by a swathe of southern Armenian territory.
It continues: “Transport control is exercised by the Border Service of the Federal Security Service of Russia. By agreement of the parties, the construction of new transport communications connecting the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijan's western regions will be provided.”
So how will this be implemented?
Will there be a special road only for Azerbaijanis? Will it still be Armenian territory, or Azerbaijani, or under some sort of international administrative regime? How will Armenians and Iranians be able to cross it into one another’s countries? Even once those issues are worked out, it’s not too difficult to imagine simple things like potholes on the road leading to international incidents in the atmosphere of mistrust that is sure to persist for a long time.
All of this is going to have to be managed between the two sides which have virtually no trust in the other and an international community which has – with the exception of Russia – basically stepped aside, distracted with other problems. It’s going to be a difficult process.
This story was supported by the Pulitzer Center and originally appeared on Eurasianet.
Joshua Kucera is the Turkey/Caucasus editor at Eurasianet, and author
of The Bug Pit.
Source: Eurasianet
www.bne.eu