Page 18 - UKRRptOct22

3.0 Macro Economy
The World Bank anticipates Ukraine’s 2023 economic growth potential.
The World Bank has raised Ukraine's GDP growth forecast in 2023 from 2.1% to 3.3%. According to the SB Economic Outlook report, the current year's economic assessment has also improved. SB expected a drop of 45.1% in June but the decrease was smaller than expected, at 35%. The report also provides a 4.1% GDP growth forecast for 2024. Based on the global poverty line of $6.85 per person per day, poverty in Ukraine is projected to increase from 5.5% in 2021 to 25% in 2022. In addition, downgrade risks are high if the war and energy security situation worsens. The World Bank also improved the recession estimate for Russia from 8.9% to 4.5% but lowered it for the next year from 2% to 3.6%.
Concorde Capital predicts a 31% GDP drop this year. However, the investment company believes GDP will grow by 8% in 2023 if half of the current negative factors are resolved by the end of 2022, and by the end of 2023, they will all be eliminated. Analysts cited commercial access to seaports and the availability of alternative routes, frontline movement, the number and consequences of missile strikes on Ukraine, the duration of air alerts, and the number of refugees and returnees as key factors in their GDP estimates. The company estimates that inflation will reach 33-36% this year. As for the budget, the company forecasts Ukraine’s expenses in the second half of 2022 at UAH 1.62 trillion. Ukraine will cover only 30% with its resources, so the financing needs will be $5B monthly. Regarding the trade balance, which turned deeply negative in April-June, the company expects some improvements in the coming months.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasted a 30% shrinkage in Ukraine's GDP in 2022. With high levels of uncertainty about the progress of the war and Ukraine's economic recovery, the EBRD also updated its expectations for a GDP rebound in 2023 from 25% to 8%.
The ICU investment company predicts the dollar at UAH 45 and GDP growth of 4% in 2023. According to an ICU macro forecast, Ukraine's GDP will decrease by 32% in 2022, after which it will recover by 4% the following year. At the beginning of 2023, inflation will slow down and, by the end of the
18 UKRAINE Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com