Page 61 - UKRRptOct22

the end of the 2022/23 marketing year, global corn stocks will only be sufficient for 80 days of supply, down 28% from five years ago. This would be the lowest level since the 2010/11 marketing year. EU grain production is expected to hit a 15-year low. This decrease will push the block to increase imports from Ukraine in the 2022/23 marketing year by approximately 30%. According to official estimates, Ukraine will harvest 25 to 27mn tons of corn in 2022 against 42.1mn tons in 2021. The diminished export of agricultural products from Ukraine this year, which represents only a portion of the pre-war level, and the risk of further supplies ceasing at any moment represents a further risk to global food security.
Ukraine needs $15B to restore irrigation. In Ukraine, almost fivemn hectares of agricultural land need restoration of land reclamation systems, which will require approximately $15B in investments. According to an adviser to the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Mykhailo Sokolov, Ukraine will need about $3,000 of investment per hectare, which amounts to $15B. Sokolov noted that to resolve the lack of funds for the restoration and development of irrigation systems, a draft law has been developed that will allow state operators to solicit investment. He added that draft law, On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts Regarding the Improvement of the Management System of Engineering Infrastructure Objects of Reclamation Systems of State Property (No. 7577), has already been registered in the Verkhovna Rada.
Due to the occupation, Ukraine has lost 10mn tons of new harvest. In 2022, Ukraine lost up to 10mn tons of potential harvest due to the occupation of its agricultural territories. According to a Ministry of Agriculture assessment, about 10mn tons could be harvested from these areas in the occupied territories. As Furman further noted, this harvest now has a different fate: in some areas, it is stolen, in some, it is burned. According to satellite information, it is known that the occupiers have stolen or damaged 500,000 tons of grain. The final loss calculation can only take place after the liberation of these territories.
The volume of Ukraine’s grain exports has fallen by half due to the war. In August, 4.5mn tons of grains, legumes, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported from Ukraine, 1150% more than in July. The six-month volume of shipped agricultural products is 12.5mn tons, roughly 50% less than in the same period last year (26.4mn tons), the Ministry of Agrarian Policy reported. In August, the volume of exports was as follows: 40.56% was corn, 19.27% - wheat, 3.37% - sunflower seeds, 8.56% - sunflower oil, 6.27% - meal, barley - 4, 53%, soybeans - 2.81%, soybean oil - 0.49%. August’s export of agricultural products in terms of transportation was as follows: 2.9mn tons were sent through ports, 959 thousand tons by railway, 625 thousand tons by cars, and 42 thousand tons by ferry.
The early grain harvest volume in Ukraine fell by 40% due to the war. In Ukraine, harvesting of early cereals and rapeseed is now almost finished. The harvest is 40% smaller than last year’s in the first weeks of September. The primary reason is smaller harvesting areas. The yield has also decreased, although not significantly, by 12% compared to the previous year, according to the Macroeconomic and Monetary Review of the NBU. As noted by the National Bank, global grain prices, mainly wheat and corn, decreased due to the increase of exports from Ukraine. However, the deterioration of expectations regarding the world’s harvest volume due to high temperatures, especially in Europe, where the biggest drought in the last 500 years was
61 UKRAINE Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com