Page 4 - Kazakh Outlook 2025

who opposed the construction found themselves directly or indirectly banned from events dedicated to debating plans for the NPP. Others found themselves detained or fined ahead of the referendum. There was even one case where a newspaper in the city of Oral was fined for conducting an opinion survey on the merits of the proposed plant. The referendum itself had a predictable outcome. The authorities announced that 71.2% of those who voted approved of the building of an NPP.
Despite authorities’ insistence that constructing an NPP is necessary for Kazakhstan’s future energy security, those opposed to Tokayev’s nuclear energy ambitions saw the move as another concession to Russia, which maintains significant political and economic influence over Kazakhstan.
Tokayev has attempted to soften these concerns by announcing that the NPP will be built by an international consortium of nuclear energy firms. However, there is reason to believe that the approach is merely cosmetic, as Russia’s Rosatom is likely to take the lead on the actual construction work, with firms from other countries mainly supplying technology. South Korea, China, Russia and France are the main contenders for consortium membership. Kazakhstan will announce its final decision in 2025.
Though many Western observers cheered on as Tokayev refused to recognise Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine as “independent”, 2024 has only demonstrated a further strengthening of Astana’s ties with Moscow. This included an announcement to promote the knowledge of the Russian language in Kazakhstan, made ahead of Putin’s state visit in November. Authorities have also announced that they will not adhere to particular Western sanctions that are to Kazakhstan's detriment. After hosting a Russia-led CSTO defence bloc summit in Astana, Tokayev proposed the Kazakh capital as a suitable site for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Observers see it as a possibility, given Astana’s previous track record of hosting Syria and Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks.
In truth, Kazakhstan has likely never planned on falling away from Russia’s sphere of influence and the trend of reforging and strengthening ties with its northern neighbour can be expected to continue in 2025, especially given the possibility of an end to the conflict in Ukraine (if US President-elect Donald Trump’s plan comes to fruition). Some Kazakh figures are cautious that Kazakh territories might be next on Russia’s list after Ukraine. Any serious signs of such a prospect would necessitate an openly friendlier approach to the Central Asian country’s former colonial master in the coming year.
4 Kazakhstan Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com