Page 6 - Kazakh Outlook 2025

2.1 GDP growth
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts that Kazakhstan’s economy will expand by 4% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report. In the first half of 2024, the main growth drivers were the trade, transport, warehousing, services and information technology sectors, the EBRD said. This was likely due to Kazakhstan’s expanding role as a transit zone for trade between China and Europe, evident since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine.
Kazakhstan’s central bank recently adjusted its 2024 GDP growth forecast to a range of 4%-4.5%, up from the earlier estimate of 3.5%-4%. However, the central bank lowered its 2025 GDP growth projection to 4.5%-5.5%, down from the previous forecast of 5%-6%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 3.6% for 2024, down from 5.1% in 2023, with a rebound to 5.1% in 2025.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Kazakhstan’s GDP looked set to grow by 3.9% in 2024 and accelerate to 4.8% in 2025, largely driven by public spending and the Tengiz oil field expansion.
2.2 Inflation and monetary policy
Kazakhstan's annual inflation eased to 8.4% in November, slightly down from 8.5% in October but remaining significantly above the central bank's 5% target, the regulator's chairman, Timur Suleimenov, said during a Senate session.
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