Page 8 - Kazakh Outlook 2025
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3.0 External Environment
Following a policy rate increase on November 29, the central bank updated its current account deficit projections to 1.3% of GDP in 2024 and 2.7% of GDP in both 2025 and 2026. These revised forecasts reflect anticipated declines in oil prices and moderate external demand, which are expected to impact Kazakhstan's export revenues. Lower oil price expectations are partly tied to Donald Trump’s US election victory in November, which has affected global oil price expectations for 2025, as Trump’s policies are expected to increase trade tariffs and boost oil supply.
Kazakhstan's external trade turnover reached $116.9bn in the January-October period. Exports accounted for $68.5bn, while imports stood at $48.4bn. The trade surplus grew by 33.4% to $20.1bn. As Kazakhstan continues to develop as a key hub for transit and re-export, it is likely that the country’s external trade will still expand in 2025, though next year’s trade surplus may be affected by lower global oil
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