Page 6 - bne IntelliNews Poland Outlook 2025

2.0 Macroeconomy
Main macroeconomic indicators 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e
GDP growth in % 5.3 0.1 2.8 3.5 3.5
Household consumption growth in % 5 -0.3 3.3 3.5 3.6
Gross investment growth in % 1.7 12.6 1.2 9 6.5
CPI change in % 14.3 11.6 3.7 4.3 2.8
Core inflation change in % 9.1 10.2 4.3 3.6 2.8
Gross average wage change in % 12 13.1 13.8 8 7
Registered unemployment rate in % 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5
General govt surplus/deficit in % of GDP -3.4 -5.3 -5.7 -5.5 -4.8
Current account balance in % of GDP -2.2 1.8 0 -0.8 1.2
Central bank reference interest rate in % 6.75 5.75 5.75 4,00 3.5
EUR/PLN at end of year 4.69 4.34 4.27 4.35 4.35
USD/PLN at end of year 4.38 3.94 4.1 4.35 4.35
Sources: GUS, Eurostat, NBP, BNP Paribas
2.1 Inflation and Monetary Policy
A lasting return of inflation to the NBP's target remains a distant prospect. In 2025, CPI inflation is expected to come in at 4.4%-4.7%, as the government phases out measures to rein in the growth of electricity prices.
The caveat concerning the government’s electricity price policy is that the political cost of removing the cap might prove prohibitive and, given a new election will begin to loom in 2026 already (the actual voting day will be in the autumn of 2027), price controls will continue.
The baseline scenario is that from July 2025, the so-called capacity charge (financing coal installations to be on standby in case demand spikes) will be reinstated and the overall cap on electricity prices will be gone from October 2025.
Regulatory factors are thus one of the main sources of uncertainty regarding the inflation path next year. On the flip side, a strong domestic currency, low inflation among Poland’s key trading partners and easing tensions in commodity markets should help alleviate price pressures. Slower wage growth should also support disinflation.
After cutting interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in September and October 2023 – in decisions seen as political – the NBP has
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