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2.2 Labour
In 2024, the Polish labour market underwent only a slight correction, reflecting adjustments to slower economic growth compared to the robust expansion of 2021-2022.
In the first half of the year, the number of employed persons, according to BAEL (Labour Force Survey), decreased by an average of 0.6% year on year. However, by Q3 2024, this decline had come to a halt. Despite these trends, the registered unemployment rate temporarily fell below 5% for the first time since official unemployment records began in 1990.
Demand for labour might have declined slightly in 2024 but it was offset by a shrinking labour supply due to the contracting working-age population (a major problem in years and decades to come in Poland) and a less favourable net migration balance. As a result, the scale of employment decline is limited, and the labour market remains tight.
Under these conditions, coupled with significant increases in the minimum wage and salaries in the public sector, wage growth in 2024 remained very high. It is estimated that wages grew by 13.7% y/y in 2024, compared to 12.8% y/y in 2023 (which was very robust anyway).
Demographic limitations notwithstanding, the labour market in 2024 was a key strength of the national economy, setting Poland apart positively from other countries. This is expected to continue in Q4 2024 and throughout 2025.
While there is a possibility of an increase in employment in 2025, a notable rise in labour demand is anticipated no sooner than the second half of 2025, due to the lagging effects of improved economic activity on labour market conditions.
8 Poland Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com