Page 9 - bne IntelliNews Poland Outlook 2025

The registered unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5% at the end of 2025, similar to its level in 2024. Wage growth is likely to remain above the long-term average, although slower inflation and smaller increases in both the minimum wage and public sector salaries are expected to moderate the growth rate to 8% y/y from 13.7% y/y in 2024, reducing cost pressures on businesses but also limiting income growth for consumers.
Still, real income growth is likely to remain sufficiently robust, and when combined with record-low unemployment and a potential decline in the savings rate, consumption growth in 2025 could surpass this year's levels.
The balance of risks for the labour market tilts slightly downward, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding growth prospects in the Eurozone, Poland’s dominant trade partner.
2.3 Industrial Production
Poland’s industrial production is expected to grow by around 5% in 2025, despite problems linked to the difficult situation of export-oriented segments, which suffer from the German slowdown.
Data from the industrial sector indicate that the investment push driven by EU funds is gradually gaining momentum. Industrial companies received an estimated PLN40bn from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RFF) and structural funds in 2014, with the figure expected to reach PLN95bn in 2025. This should support a revival in public investment in the first place.
External demand, particularly from Germany, is not expected to provide significant support to Polish manufacturers in 2025. Competition from China and the Trump administration’s tariff plans will be big challenges to the Germany industrial sector, and will affect export-focused segments of the Polish industrial sector, the automotive branch in particular.
The disparity between sectors focused on domestic sales and those oriented toward exports is significant. Domestic-focused industrial companies have grown 3% on average while exporters have seen an average decline of 1%, Polish business news and analysis newspaper Puls Biznesu noted in December.
Domestic-oriented sectors include food processing, wood and paper manufacturing, printing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, construction materials and metals. The export-oriented group includes producers of electronics, household appliances, electrical machinery, furniture, transport equipment and automotive products.
9 Poland Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com