Page 10 - bne IntelliNews Poland Outlook 2025

In 2025, then, Poland’s industrial recovery might not come on the back of a revival in Germany – where next year’s growth is expected to barely achieve 0.2%, according to the Bundesbank – but rather thanks to the gradually improving consumer demand elsewhere in the European Union. Average retail sales volumes across the bloc are slowly rising, possibly marking an early stage of a sustained recovery, which will eventually filter through to Poland’s export-oriented sectors.
The latest available data show that Poland’s industrial production declined 1.5% y/y at constant prices in November, after a revised increase of 4.6% y/y the preceding month, the statistical office GUS said in December.
"The industrial sector continues to neither collapse – as its German counterpart has – nor exhibit the type of expansion seen in previous economic cycles. We expect that in 2025, a combination of still decent domestic consumption growth and a recovery in the construction sector driven by EU funds will enable positive growth in production volumes,” Santander Bank Polska said in a comment on GUS data.
2.4 FX
After the announcement of the US. election results, the Polish zloty emerged as the strongest-performing currency in Central Europe. This performance reflected Poland's relative insulation from many of the risks associated with Trump’s policies for emerging markets.
Beyond domestic fundamentals, support came from EU fund exchanges in the market and the positioning of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) as the most hawkish central bank in the region – with interest rates at 5.75% and the prospect of monetary easing only tentatively marked for mid-2025 at the earliest.
10 Poland Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com