Page 54 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine May 2024

54 Opinion bne May 2024
The Russians have for decades used the vast expanses of the Kazakh steppe for weapons testing.
Ukraine’s power blackout means a dark future
Andrew Collingwood in Tyneside
In the last week, two pieces of legislation have been passed, one in Kyiv and one in Washington, that appear to go some way to addressing the most pressing problems Ukraine faces in its war with Russia. They do not. Reality has moved on to the point where they are probably irrelevant to the long-term prospects of Ukraine – a fact that cheering, flag-waving lawmakers seem to have missed.
On April 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed into law legislation designed to alleviate the chronic and increasingly acute manpower issues of the Armed Forces
of Ukraine. The new law, which was amended over 4,000 times during its passage through the Ukrainian legislature, is seen both in Kyiv and the West as an important step toward stemming the tide of Russian territorial gains, which have gathered pace since the fall of Avdiivka in February this year.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, another piece of legislation important to Ukraine’s war effort has passed, as the US Congress has finally voted to hand Ukraine more than $60bn of economic and military aid. In addition to manpower issues, Ukraine has been outgunned since last year’s failed
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counteroffensive, with some reports now claiming that the country’s armed forces have a 10:1 disadvantage in large calibre artillery rounds fired. Ukraine is also obviously
in desperate need of air defence. It is expected in Kyiv, Washington and European capitals that the new aid package will help address some of these shortages.
Both pieces of legislation are irrelevant. The moneys provided by the US, and earlier by the EU, will indeed
provide short-term succour in the form of a fresh influx of weaponry (although the extent of available supplies is open to question, and thus the scale of Western materiel crossing into Ukraine may disappoint some of the country's more ardent supporters). It is further true that, as the new mobilisation law takes effect, and conscripts are pushed through the training system, Ukraine will be able to more effectively replenish its manpower on the front lines by the summer.
Yet neither issue addresses the main danger to Ukraine. As politicians in Kyiv were playing pass the ticking parcel on mobilisation laws, and the US establishment sought to browbeat Speaker Mike Johnson into bringing Ukraine aid