Page 56 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine May 2024

56 Opinion bne May 2024 COMMENT
Armenia's decisive turn towards the West Robert Ananyan in Yerevan
Armenia is making a strategic turn, away from Russia and towards the US and the European Union. The ultimate goal of this process is Armenia's accession to the EU.
The forced deportation of 120,000 ethnic Armenians
from Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan's military attacks and occupation of Armenian territories – while Russian peacekeepers looked on – have finally pushed Yerevan to start security, economic, and political cooperation with the West.
Russia made a strategic choice in favour of cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey in which Armenia was sacrificed. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan afterwards announced that the country’s previous unilateral dependence on Russia had been shown to be a strategic mistake.
The tripartite meeting of Pashinyan, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on April 5 should be considered in this context of Armenia's turn towards the West.
Although the tripartite statement of April 5 was economic, the political component was certainly also discussed behind closed doors. Sources from Armenia’s ruling party report that there has been a political decision to freeze
relations with Russia and move closer to the West, including eventual membership of the European Union. Brussels and Washington have of course been notified about it, but the process must be smooth and cannot be mentioned publicly, considering the security threats against Armenia.
Armenia and its Western partners have conducted a risk assessment, during which the retaliatory blows that Russia could deliver were assessed. The threat of carrying out terrorist acts against the Armenian authorities has been looked at. Naturally, the Kremlin will also try to apply crushing sanctions against Armenia in an attempt to make Armenia's economy collapse.
The Brussels meeting aimed to make the Armenian economy resilient and immune to Russian sanctions. Yerevan received serious homework, and the possibility of EU membership will depend on the effectiveness of its performance.
In Brussels, the US and the EU offered economic assistance that will ease the cost of leaving the CSTO defence pact and EEU trade bloc, which are led by Russia.
The West will provide material resources to reduce structural dependencies on Russia – in trade, exports, communications, transport infrastructure, energy and the political sphere –
Today, Azerbaijan faces a choice: whether to join Russia in hindering Armenia's integration with the West or to maintain good relations with the West.
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