Page 57 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine May 2024

bne May 2024
Opinion 57
that prevent Yerevan from making sovereign decisions in foreign policy.
Armenia received an offer from the EU to implement projects worth €2.6bn in 2021, of which €500mn have already been spent. The fresh €270mn allocated by the European Union and the $65mn offered by the USA will be spent on business modernisation and finding new markets.
Armenia must successfully implement the programmes proposed by Brussels, which aim to increase the economic capabilities and resilience of the country. These include the EU's funding programmes for Armenian businesses, which will help them improve the standards of their products and gain access to European markets. Access to the EU market will create an important alternative for the Armenian economy, preventing it from collapsing in the event of Russian economic sanctions against Armenia.
Thus, Armenia will acquire economic immunity to possible Russian sanctions. With full guarantees, Armenia will then publish the political decision to withdraw from the CSTO and EEU.
Energy is a key issue. At the moment, Armenia supplies about 30% of its own energy, which is insufficient to be independent of Russian supplies. If Russia closes the valve of the gas transported to Armenia, to meet the shortfall, the Armenian side could only import gas from Iran, and could possibly import more from Azerbaijan.
According to the trilateral statement, the United States is committed to Armenia's safe, reliable, and secure energy future and is working to support energy diversification by exploring the feasibility of new options for nuclear power. Although
it has not been announced yet, we have information that Armenia and the USA will jointly build a nuclear power plant.
In addition, USAID is supporting the Armenian government in developing a strategy to liberalise the energy market. Addi- tionally, in terms of ensuring energy independence, Armenia's participation in the project to lay an energy cable across the Black Sea is important, a topic that was also discussed in Brussels.
With the support of American partners, energy independence reform is underway. Achieving political independence from Russia is impossible if the establishment of economic and energy independence does not precede it.
Pressure points
Russia has more pressure points to hinder Armenia's progress towards the West. There are pro-Russian political groups in Armenia, which often organise anti-government protests on the order of the Kremlin. However, at least five major actions have failed. Although their slogans were in national-patriotic vocabulary, the calls of Russian propagandists to Armenian citizens to participate in actions against Pashinyan's government revealed their Russian trace.
The discrediting of Russia, the co-author of the Karabakh forced deportation programme, has also weakened the position of pro-Russian forces in Armenia. These have become unviable political groups.
But of course, to neutralise Pashinyan's power, Russia and its proxies in Armenia have the tools to carry out terrorism. In the past, there have been several terrorist attacks in Armenia. In 1999, terrorists killed all the leaders of the country, except for the president. In 2008, during the rule of Robert Kocharyan, 10 protesters were killed. On the night of November 9, 2020, protesters attacked today's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, whose life was miraculously saved. In recent months, Armenia's security bodies have discovered attempts to prepare terrorist attacks that targeted Pashinyan and his colleagues.
Azerbaijan can also be used to pile pressure Armenia. In Armenia, the prevailing view is that Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has moved to occupy sovereign territories of Armenia in coordination with Russia over the last three to four years. Even during the meeting in Brussels, the armed forces of Azerbaijan fired irregularly at Armenian settlements.
However, despite having been repeatedly attacked by the Azerbaijani military, Armenia has not agreed to give the "Zangezur Corridor" to Russia and Azerbaijan.
In a telephone conversation with Blinken on the eve of the April 5 trilateral meeting, Aliyev revealed that he hoped that the meeting would be cancelled.
However, the US refused to cancel the meeting. Instead the US – a leading player in the institutional rapprochement of Armenia and the West – warned Aliyev about the inadmissibility of the military scenario.
Aliyev loses his 'big game'
If Azerbaijan plays by the Kremlin's rules and tries to hinder the rapprochement between Armenia and the West, it will be opposing the entry of the US and the EU into the South Caucasus.
Aliyev has repeatedly stated that Washington and Brussels have nothing to do with the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process, and that extra-regional forces have nothing to do in the region. Arresting independent Azerbaijani journalists, Aliyev's regime presents them as American spies. Aliyev's propaganda machine places the beheading of the free press in the context of not allowing extra-regional access to the region.
The US administration is extremely serious about ensuring Russia's withdrawal from the South Caucasus. Today, Azerbaijan faces a choice: whether to join Russia in hindering Armenia's integration with the West or to maintain good relations with the West.
If the president of Azerbaijan does not want to be subjected to heavy sanctions by the US and the EU, he should refuse to
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