Page 106 - RusRPTJun24

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Russia’s budget deficit is currently RUB1.5trn, or ~90% of full year target, but with oil revenues up >80% y/y each month and spending up ~20%, MinFin on target to keep deficit to 0.8% GDP this year (RUB1.6trn), half of last year’s 1.9% GDP
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
Strong export revenues are helping to keep the fiscal situation stable. In the first four months of the year, Russia’s federal budget deficit reached RUB1.5 trillion– 92% of the full-year target, but less than half the deficit in the same period in 2023.
Revenues rose sharply (50%) – with oil and gas revenues up 82% and non-oil revenues up 37% – more than offsetting higher expenditures (22%) due to increased war spending. Although the budget showed a deficit of around RUB900mn in April, Russia is on track to meet its 2024 target. At current oil export prices, Russia is unlikely to face significant external imbalances or fiscal constraints.
106 RUSSIA Country Report June 2024 www.intellinews.com