Page 107 - RusRPTJun24

O&G exports reached $234 billion in 2023 and are projected to drop to $214 billion in 2024 and $181 billion in 2025, says KSE. “We project a current account surplus of $66 billion and $51 billion in 2024-25, respectively, with risks to the upside,” says KSE. But should energy sanctions not be enforced effectively, the surplus could grow to close to $100 billion for the full year.
Russia’s military and war-related spending is projected to rise 29% y/y to RUB12.8 trillion (about $140bn), an international think tank said on Wednesday, citing new federal budget plans. Russia’s military spending in 2024 will increase to 7.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP), accounting for 35% of total government spending, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its report. The three-year new federal budget plan through 2026 was signed into law by President Vladimir Putin at the end of November.
Federal budget expenditures for implementation of National Projects will total RUB3.008 trillion ($33.3bn) in 2024, the Russian Finance Ministry told TASS, or just under a quarter of what is being spent on defence.
Despite economic challenges, the allocations to the budget chapter “National economy” decreased to 11% of total spending in 2024, from 14% in 2023. The share of allocations to key social spending also dropped, including housing from 2.8% to 2.2%; education from 4.8% to 4.2%, and health care from 5.2% to 4.4%.
The Kremlin opened up the fiscal taps after President Vladimir Putin’s re-election in March, putting the budget back into deep deficit despite a surge in oil revenues. Russia's budget deficit grew almost 2.5 times due to increased spending in April, finance ministry data showed.
The deficit was RUB1.484 trillion ($16bn) in the year to date through April, more than doubling from the previous month, the Finance Ministry said on May 13.
Russia's Finance Ministry expects the federal budget deficit to be within
107 RUSSIA Country Report June 2024 www.intellinews.com