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GDP). However, there will almost certainly be problems with this. For example, the decree calls for 50% of Russia’s civil aviation fleet to be domestically produced by 2030. This contradicts a 2022 aviation industry development program, which envisaged hitting the 50% mark by 2027 and achieving 1,440 domestically produced planes (almost 82% of the fleet) by 2030. However, by the beginning of this year it was clear the program could not be realized.
The goal for Russia’s average life expectancy has also been adjusted. By 2030, this is now supposed to be 78 years (the current figure for Saudi Arabia). However, that was originally the target for 2024. Current life expectancy in Russia is 73.5 years. Few people remember that, back in 2012, Putin’s first May decree promised a life expectancy of 74 years by 2018.
In all the targets and goals, there is no mention of increased competition, or a more open economy. This implies that the state’s dominant role in the economy is set to continue.
Finally, it seems clear that the 2024 decree is only achievable if the economy grows, and spending levels remain high. Notably, neither the 2012 decree, nor the one issued in 2018, was fully achieved. Several targets that were set back then, such as life expectancy, remained unfulfilled. Others have been officially scrapped.
Indeed, these May decrees could be appropriately characterized with a quote from German social democrat Eduard Bernstein that is often used by Putin (though he falsely attributes it to Leon Trotsky): “The movement is everything, the final goal is nothing.”
Via The Bell
2.13 Russian elites becoming more hawkish
Stanovaya writes: “Judging by off-the-record talks I had with contacts in Moscow, it became clear that nobody is looking for an exit strategy from the war or an opportunity to initiate dialogue with the West; nobody is concerned with persuading the West to ease sanctions; nobody is hungry for compromise with Ukraine, at least under its current leadership. There is no conjecture about what would constitute an acceptable deal to end this conflict. Instead, the Russian leadership and elites are proceeding on the basis that Russia cannot afford to lose the war, and to ensure it does not, the country must keep up the pressure on Ukraine, for no matter how long.”
“The exact nature of that victory remains vague in the minds of Russian elites, who instead seem to find more safety in Russia’s posture of aggression alone. The war has become a goal in and of itself, serving multiple purposes: it staves off defeat, creates new opportunities for career growth and business ventures, and boosts the economy. Critiquing the war makes you an enemy of the state (and by extension, the public) and hoping for its imminent end is too wishful; a Russian defeat, after all, could make many in the country vulnerable to being held accountable for complicity in war crimes perpetrated in Ukraine.”
32 RUSSIA Country Report June 2024 www.intellinews.com