Page 34 - RusRPTJun24

“Among Russian elites, the prevailing belief is that only a military defeat or a prolonged, severe financial crisis could halt their country’s momentum. Many Russians see defeating Ukraine as a crucial step in the Kremlin’s anti-Western agenda. Forget territorial gains or even preventing NATO expansion—establishing a political regime in Ukraine that is friendly to Russia, thereby denying the West a beachhead on Ukrainian soil, would mark a significant defeat for the West.”
“Attempting to appease Putin is futile, and wishfully seeking for fragmentation within Russia is unlikely to be effective as long as the country remains financially robust, maintains the upper hand over Ukraine, and secures total domestic control. The authorities are rapidly becoming more hawkish, the elites are increasingly embracing Putin’s war agenda, and the broader society is unable (or indeed unwilling) to exert the kind of pressure that might push Russia in a different directions. Western leaders face the unenviable task of determining how to engage with a Russia that has grown increasingly self-confident, bold, and radical.”
2.14 Pressing problems for Putin and Xi
There are four pressing problems that Vladimir Putin would obviously like to discuss with Chinese President Xi Jinping: supplies of dual-use products, payments for exports (sharply complicated due to secondary US sanctions), the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and prospects political settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There were no clear signals on any of the issues in the public field today.
According to official communiqués following the first day of the visit, Russia and China signed ten agreements, and the leaders of the countries adopted a joint statement on “comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction.” The document says that Russia and China “consistently regard each other as priority partners” and are ready to “provide strong support to each other in protecting vital interests, including issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Beijing recognizes the results of the latest presidential elections, and Moscow recognizes that Taiwan is an integral part of China.
The parties agreed to “consistently increase the scale of bilateral trade” and defend “the stability and security of production and supply chains.” It is planned to “increase the share of national currencies” in bilateral payments and improve the financial infrastructure so that they “function smoothly.” It does not follow from this that the parties agreed to unblock settlements: Chinese banks are also slowing them down in yuan. The share of settlements in national currencies has already reached 90%, Putin said - and added that Moscow and Beijing will strengthen contacts between banks.
The documents also do not specifically talk about the second “Power of Siberia,” which remains the only outlet for Gazprom’s West Siberian fields to the foreign market. In the field of energy, Russia and China will strengthen their partnership to “ensure the economic and energy security of the two countries.” In all likelihood, no other news about the “Power of Siberia” should be expected. As it turned out today from the Russian delegation, Putin did not
34 RUSSIA Country Report June 2024 www.intellinews.com