Page 11 - AfrOil Week 44

AfrOil GUEST COMMENT AfrOil

Will Turkey and Greece fight a

war over East Mediterranean gas?

GUEST COMMENT IN early October the President of the European is a good place to start.
Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, threatened Two islands, one large, one tiny, prevent
Turkey with sanctions if the latter continued to Turkey’s EEZ from including the northern half
take “unilateral action” in the Eastern Mediterra- of the East Med Basin. The larger, Cyprus, sits
nean. The Commission does not move fast and 100 km south of Turkey and interrupts Turkey’s
so Turkey’s behaviour between now and the end ownership of the eastern half of its littoral. With
of the year will receive a leisurely review, proba- Cyprus where it is, Turkey’s EEZ only extends 50
bly by March 2021. km south of the Turkish coast and then stops.
The unilateral actions which prompted the Cyprus owns everything south of that (subject
President’s threat were inspired by four complex to an argument, discussed below).
and interrelated Turkish problems, two of which The smaller island, the Greek territory of Kas-
turn on the very likely presence of large gas tellorizo, is a minute speck of land 2 km off Tur-
reserves in Turkey’s southern littoral. The third key’s south coast about midway between Cyprus
problem is ownership of improbable marine and Rhodes. A simple view (and the Greek view)
resources in the Aegean (well explored, fished of EEZ definitions would give this small chip of
out long ago and of little commercial value), Greece a large triangular EEZ to its south, and
while the last one is not an energy problem at all, would transfer some 40% of Turkey’s continental
but is no less painful for Turkey. All four prob- shelf to Greek ownership. I call this the Kastello-
lems are governed by International Law, and that rizo Triangle.™

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