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     beyond Iran's nuclear programme, particularly regarding its ballistic missile capabilities and regional influence through proxy networks. These demands touch on core elements of Iran's security strategy that hardline factions view as non-negotiable. Additionally, a more hawkish Republican Congress could further constrain diplomatic flexibility.
Domestically, Pezeshkian faces a delicate balancing act. Any perceived concessions to US demands risk strengthening opposition from hardline elements who equate compromise with weakness. This internal resistance limits his negotiating room, even as economic pressures create urgency for sanctions relief.
Should diplomatic efforts fail, Iran would likely accelerate its "Look East" policy, deepening economic and strategic ties with China and Russia
but under far more pressure from both the US, Israel and Turkey – the latter two significantly increasing pressure at the beginning of 2025.
• 9.2 Succession planning
The beginning of 2025 marks a turning point for the Islamic Republic and Iran, which has been under strict rulings since 1980. As speculation intensifies about potential succession scenarios that could reshape the nation's political landscape.
After more than three decades of leadership under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran faces its most significant political transition since the 1979 Revolution, with implications that extend far beyond its borders following the collapse of the so-called “Shi’ite Crescent” that connected the Islamic Republic with Lebanon via both Syria and Iraq.
Khamenei’s health has been in question for decades. Still, at 85 years old and politically weakened due to the catastrophic collapse of its network, many are looking closer at the ailing leader with shock both domestically and internationally.
The institutional framework for succession rests with the Assembly of Experts, but the practical dynamics involve a complex web of power centres including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), clerical establishment, and various political factions and the liberal-leaning Pezeshkian presidency.
Historical precedent suggests the system will strive to maintain continuity during any leadership change, with the Khamenei clan fully aware of a pretender to the throne coming from the left field.
The previous succession from Ayatollah Khomeini to Khamenei demonstrated the ability of Iran's political institutions to manage transition while preserving core power structures. However, today's Iran faces more severe economic pressures and social tensions than in 1989, complicating the succession calculus.
 28 IRAN OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com
 






















































































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