Page 29 - Iran OUTLOOK 2025

Mojtaba Khamenei's potential candidacy represents an intriguing yet controversial possibility. As the current Supreme Leader's son, he enjoys certain advantages but faces questions about the propriety of hereditary succession in an ostensibly clerical-based system. His selection would likely signal continuity in Iran's strategic orientation while raising concerns about further consolidation of power within established circles.
The economic context of succession cannot be overlooked. Iran's "resistance economy" has shown resilience against sanctions but at significant cost to living standards and development. Any new leadership will inherit these challenges along with growing public frustration over economic conditions. This suggests that even a conservative successor might need to consider pragmatic adjustments to economic policy, particularly regarding international engagement.
The international dimension adds another layer of complexity. With the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency and evolving regional dynamics, Iran's next Supreme Leader will need to navigate a particularly challenging external environment. This could influence the selection process, favouring candidates with experience in strategic decision-making and crisis management.
Looking beyond 2025, the succession outcome will profoundly affect Iran's domestic stability and international positioning. A smooth transition to an establishment figure might provide short-term stability but could delay necessary reforms. Conversely, the emergence of internal disagreements during succession could create openings for gradual systemic evolution, though likely not dramatic change given the IRGC's stabilising role.
29 IRAN OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com