Page 4 - Iran OUTLOOK 2025

1.0 Politics
Change in power: In the months following his unexpected election in July 2024, President Masoud Pezeshkian has navigated a complex political landscape, balancing reformist aspirations with the entrenched conservatism of Iran's ruling establishment.
Domestic policy and governance: Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old cardiac surgeon and former health minister, ascended to the presidency as Iran's first reformist leader since 2005. His victory, marked by a low voter turnout of 39%, underscored a significant disconnect between the state and its citizenry.
Upon assuming office, Pezeshkian pledged to address economic challenges and social restrictions, particularly those affecting women and the youth. However, his cabinet appointments have drawn criticism from reformist supporters. Notably, the retention of Esmaïl Khatib as Minister of Intelligence, despite previous security lapses, and the appointment of Eskandar Momeni, known for his stringent enforcement of conservative social policies, as Minister of the Interior, have raised concerns about the administration's commitment to genuine reform.
Foreign policy and international relations: In foreign affairs, Pezeshkian signalled a willingness to engage with Western nations, aiming to alleviate economic sanctions and revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. His administration's openness to dialogue was exemplified by the appointment of Abbas Araghchi, a seasoned diplomat, as Foreign Minister.
Despite these overtures, Pezeshkian has maintained Iran's traditional alliances, as evidenced by his inaugural state visit to Iraq and the Kurdistan region, where he paid homage to General Qassem Soleimani.
Challenges and public perception: Pezeshkian's tenure has been marred by significant challenges, including an energy crisis leading to widespread power outages, which have exacerbated public discontent. Critics argue that his administration's efforts to address these issues have been insufficient, highlighting the inherent difficulties faced by a reformist president operating within a system dominated by conservative forces.
Political weakness: Iran's energy infrastructure struggled to meet demand, leading to frequent power outages that disrupted daily life and industrial operations towards the end of 2024. Initially, the government provided schedules for these outages, but they became increasingly unpredictable, causing public frustration. Authorities attributed the blackouts to insufficient fuel for electricity production. Citizens expressed concerns over safety, economic impact.
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