Page 5 - Iran OUTLOOK 2025

US-Iran relations: The election of US President Donald Trump has introduced potential shifts in US-Iran relations. Trump considered appointing Richard Grenell, former Director of National Intelligence, as a special envoy for Iran, signalling a possible change in Washington's approach toward Tehran. This development suggested an openness to negotiations regarding sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme despite previous adversarial positions.
Regional dynamics and security concerns. The fall of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad had significant implications for Iran, which had invested an estimated $50bn in supporting his regime. This loss sparked public outrage in Iran, with citizens criticising the government's allocation of resources. The situation highlighted the regime's challenges in maintaining influence amid regional instability and domestic economic pressures.
Administrative initiatives. President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration faced criticism over its handling of the energy crisis. In response, the government launched a "two degrees less" campaign, urging citizens to lower their thermostats to conserve energy. Ministers publicly demonstrated their commitment by posting photos of their unheated, unlit offices. Additionally, the administration ordered temporary shutdowns of industrial towns to reduce electricity consumption.
2.0 Macro Economy
Indicator
Nominal GDP (USD billion)
Real GDP Growth (% year on year)
Unemployment Rate (% average)
**Consumer Price Inflation (% average)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
2020 2021
231.5 258.2
-6.8 4.7
9.6 9.4
36.5 40.0
-0.5 3.5
2022 2023
413.4 401.5
3.0 2.0 2.0 9.2 9.1 9.0
40.0 44.6 40.0 4.0 3.0 3.5
Note: 2024 figures are estimates and may be subject to revision.
5 IRAN OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com
2024*
434.2