Page 5 - AfrOil Week 50 2020

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

After several days of combat, it was able to expel Islamic State. Several hundred members of the
the militants with air support from Dyck Advi- group staged an attack on Kitaya, a village in
sory Group (DAG), a private South African Tanzania’s southern Mtwara region, in October
security firm that has been aiding the Mozam- of this year. Since then, it has claimed responsi-
bican government. bility for three more attacks in the same region.
The fighting was intense enough to force Meanwhile, recent events have led officials
Total to suspend construction for several days, in Harare to fret about the possibility that the
AFP reported on December 11, citing Mozam- conflict may also spread across Mozambique’s
bican sources. The French company did not con- north-western border into Zimbabwe. They
firm the report, but it did tell the news agency have also led hundreds of thousands of peo-
that it was “closely monitoring” the situation in ple to flee Cabo Delgado Province in the hope
northern Mozambique. of escaping the conflict. Valentin Tapsoba, the
head of southern African operations at the
More conflict likely United Nations High Commission for Refugees
Meanwhile, the conflict is hardly over. (UNHCR), said earlier this week that the num-
Despite its recovery of Mute and other sites, ber of refugees now stood at 424,000 and was
FADM has not been able to deprive of ASWJ of likely to rise.
control over the entirety of the Cabo Delgado
province. This is not likely to change any time Seeking a solution
soon, especially since Mozambique’s military Tapsoba told Reuters he believed that Mozam-
forces are not trained well and are not respected bique ought to have help from neighbouring
enough in Cabo Delgado to win much sympathy states in addressing the insurgency and all of the
from the local population disruptions that have emerged from it. “This is
At the same time, the Islamist group has a situation starting in one country, but if all the
remained determined to seize as much terri- countries don’t get their act together to tackle Total reportedly
tory as possible – and has shown that it is will- it and wait too long, it could spread within the
ing to inflict severe violence to achieve its aims. sub-region,” he said. suspended work
Indeed, some observers believe more attacks are Mozambique has made some efforts to on its LNG plant
likely within Mozambique in the short term. secure assistance from nearby states. For exam-
For example, Janes, a UK-based military ple, in mid-November, it signed an agreement last week amidst
intelligence consultancy, attached a pessimistic with Tanzania on joint operations against
headline – “Growing confidence of ASWJ mili- ASWJ. Later in the same month, the Mozam- new clashes
tants presages increasingly sophisticated attacks bican Minister of Defence met with senior offi-
over expanded area of operations in Mozam- cials from five member states of the Southern between ASWJ
bique’s Cabo Delgado” – to a comment pub- African Development Community (SADC) to and FADM
lished online on December 14. It did so shortly discuss responses to the Islamist group’s attacks.
after AFP quoted unnamed military sources Mozambican officials then held additional talks
as saying that the Islamist group might mount with their counterparts from Botswana, South
another campaign soon. Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe earlier this
This means that Total and other IOCs have week.
good reasons to remain worried about security So far, though, these discussions have not led
– and not just the security of their own construc- to the signing of any agreements or the formula-
tion sites and facilities, but also the security of tion of any strategies. As a result, there is a very
ports, roads and other infrastructure used to real chance that the conflict will not only con-
support their gas projects. tinue but worsen to the point where it threatens
to hamper the activities of the companies that
A regional problem hope to start extracting and processing gas from
The companies may also wish to prepare for the fields located offshore Mozambique within the
possibility of more widespread instability in East next few years. Total and other IOCs ought
Africa. to start considering, then, how to respond if
Mozambique is not the only country in the their projects – Mozambique, Rovuma LNG
region to be affected by ASWJ’s attacks, which and Coral South LNG, which are expected to
are meant to bring the whole region under require up to $60bn worth of investments – are
the control of an Islamist government loyal to disrupted by ASWJ attacks. ™

(Image: CSIS)

Week 50 16•December•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5