Page 17 - Uzbek Outlook 2024

Budget revenues
Consolidated budget revenues are projected at UZS375 trillion (28.8% of GDP), up from UZS310.7 trillion in 2023. Of that, republican budget revenues will account for UZS270.3 trillion, which represents a 16.2% increase relative to 2023. The authorities do not plan amendments to the VAT rate, income tax, or profit tax in 2024. Receipts are expected to rise, however, especially with regard to VAT. Collection is thus forecast at UZS74 trillion, as opposed to UZS60 trillion in 2023. In 2023's revenues were originally projected at UZS64 trillion, but a revision was forced by the delay of utility tariff reform, lower cotton prices, and weather-related issues during the harvest campaign. In this context, the 2024 projection may be subject to risks, especially if the government postpones tariff liberalisation again. The FinMin thus estimates such a decision would reduce budget revenues by UZS1.5 trillion. More generally, the trajectory of import growth suggests an upward push from VAT on imported goods, which seems to be the main factor behind the expected receipt growth in 2024.
In addition, corporate income tax revenues are seen rising by 8.3% in 2024 to a total of UZS44.3 trillion. Uzbekistan's largest SOEs account for over a third of all receipts, so their performance will be crucial. Meanwhile, revenues from personal income tax are expected at UZS38.5 trillion, which implies a sharp 30.7% increase compared to the 2023 projection. This is mostly due to a planned reform concerning sole proprietors, who are not covered by the 12% tax rate and instead pay a fixed sum. The latter is supposed to increase by 10% as of February 1, with the same measure also implemented last year. The most significant tax reform in 2024 is related to excise tax. Receipts are subsequently projected to rise by 38.4%, reaching UZS22.7 trillion. Specifically, the FinMin plans to raise the excise tax on ethanol from UZS7,400 per litre to UZS14,900, citing efforts to promote healthy living. It will also introduce excise tax on fizzy drinks containing sugar for the same reason (UZS500 per litre).
17 Uzbekistan Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com