Page 19 - Uzbek Outlook 2024

water shortage risks and also suffers harvest yield losses due to inefficient water distribution. A more significant spending hike (by UZS2.1 trillion) is planned in law enforcement and public administration, where the general fiscal stimuli have a notable impact as well. Assuming the planned utility tariff hikes are implemented, spending on gas subsidies will decrease almost twofold in 2024. Moderation (by UZS3 trillion) will also be registered with regard to spending on state development programmes. Fixed capital investment will actually increase in 2024, but the overall decrease reflects reduced spending on projects initiated by citizens under two specialised state programmes.
Public debt payments will amount to UZS48.7 trillion in 2024, divided into UZS32.3 trillion for principal debt payments and UZS16.4 trillion for interest payments. In 2023, these volumes stood at UZS19.2 trillion and UZS8.3 trillion respectively. A similar upward trajectory has persisted in recent years due to the authorities' extensive borrowing. Public debt is officially capped at 60% of GDP as of 2023. The current fiscal framework also pledges 'measures' to keep it below 50% of GDP in the medium term, though there is no specific explanation of what these measures will entail. Analysts do not expect public debt levels to exceed 40% of GDP in the short run, but it should be noted that the government's management strategy still is not particularly clear.
Financing needs in 2024
The authorities will need to finance a consolidated budget deficit of UZS52.5 trillion alongside principal debt payments in the amount of UZS32.3 trillion. In addition, UZS11.3 trillion will be required to fund state support programmes for businesses and mortgage extension. A large share of the respective financing will come from external sources (UZS43.6 trillion). IFI loans are thus anticipated at UZS31.8 trillion, while the remainder will come in the shape of other loans for development funding. Domestic sources will in turn contribute
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