Page 6 - Uzbek Outlook 2024

With one of the youngest and fastest growing populations in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Uzbekistan has the largest population in Central Asia – nearly 36mn, including 60% under 30. Creating jobs has been a key focus for the government, which has also introduced wide-ranging “added value” education reforms, in parallel to similar ideas for the industrial and manufacturing policies. Dozens of new specialised universities have been founded and projects like Tashkent’s IT park have also received investment to provide venues for new innovations and entrepreneurship.
Finally, energy has been a problem for many years, but a new gas deal with Russia was finalised at the end of 2023, reversing the flow of gas pipelines that used to run out of Central Asia to Russia that now bring about 2bn cubic metres of gas a year, sufficient to power Uzbekistan and end the winter black-outs.
Moreover, the government has been investing heavily in new high-efficiency power plants and also renewable energy. The ambitions for expanding green power have expanded and the country is already producing a quarter of its power from renewables, making it the regional leader in renewable power.
Internationally, Mirziyoyev has a foreign policy focus on ending the regional rivalries that used to exist amongst the five ‘Stans. Increasingly Mirziyoyev and his fellow presidents travel together in the so-called C5 format to increase their clout and appeal in international deals. The C5 group has been in Russia, China, Germany and South Korea and others as a group in 2023 to negotiate trade and investment deals.
Their foreign policy has been complicated by the geopolitical clash between the West and Russia/China, as Central Asia is caught between the two superpower blocks. However, all five countries have tried to adopt a neutral stance, balancing trade and investment from Russia with the need to maintain good relations with the US, so far with success.
But with trade via states like Kyrgyzstan soaring by several hundred percent in 2023 alone as goods are routed from the west via Central Asia into Russia, the balance remains delicate.
So far, the US has chosen not to penalise the Central Asian countries, understanding that sanctions would only drive them into Russia and China’s arms, but foreign policy remains difficult and delicate as a result.
The other tricky issue is Afghanistan, which remains the major security threat in the region, especially after the Taliban’s return. Mirziyoyev has been a leader in trying to bring peace and stability, even while Afghanistan was under US occupation.
Against the background of global turmoil, the interest of world powers in the region has grown dramatically.
The outlook for 2024 is good, as all these policies are expected to continue, and will underpin the strong economic growth of recent years.
6 Uzbekistan Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com