Page 9 - Uzbek Outlook 2024

Mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Pakistan is on course to more than double to $1bn of turnover within the next two years, the Ambassador of Uzbekistan, Oybek Arif Usmanov, said on August 18.
Over the last three years, trade between the two nations has consistently expanded by 50% to 55% annually and saw the volume surge from $50mn to $240mn last year, the ambassador said. Year to date, bilateral trade has already reached $180mn and is on course to surpass last year’s total.
Uzbekistan is aligning its legislation with World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements to expedite its accession. In June 2023 the president signed a decree on “additional measures to expedite the republic of Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization”. The decree prohibits any legislation that fails to adhere to WTO rules and regulations. It also establishes the role of Special Representative for WTO matters within the presidential administration. In August 2023 the president signed another decree to further harmonise Uzbekistan’s legislation with WTO agreements.
4.0 Inflation & Monetary Policy
4.1 Inflation
By end-2023, the 12-month inflation rate is projected to decline by more than 3 percentage points – compared to the same period last year – to 9%,
helped by a high real policy rate, a value-added tax rate cut, and lower international food and energy prices.
Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan rose by 0.2 percentage points in October to 13.7%.
The central bank said that 59% of respondents said that the dynamics of the exchange rate was the main factor in determining expectations. This was followed by the factors of an increase in the price of fuel and energy resources (49%) and an increase in utility tariffs (36%).
“The business forecast for inflation is also rising. However, the current figures are noticeably lower than at the beginning of the year,” the regulator noted.
In October, average inflation expected by entrepreneurs was 14.4% (+0.2 pp).
The three main factors influencing the forecasts coincide with the responses of the general population. Currency fluctuations were leading (62%), followed by hiked fuel prices (47%) and utility tariffs (37%).
In addition, a significant proportion of respondents noted transport costs (32%).
Monetary policy should remain tight to continue to reduce inflation. Needed increases in administered energy prices are expected to raise inflation.
9 Uzbekistan Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com