Page 8 - UKRRptNov22

of the attack the Russian defence line shortens, increasing the density of men per kilometre.
Where Ukrainian heavy equipment (artillery, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles) has been destroyed in an attack phase it must be replaced if the next phase of the attack is to have the same success as the previous phase. Kyiv does not have ample, or any, reserves of artillery or tanks, in spite of continued western help.
The US yesterday allocated another $650m of military supplies to Ukraine. The detailed inventory revealed in a Pentagon press briefing mentioned only sixteen 155mm guns (with some lighter 105 mm guns as well). The greater proportion of the allocation (by value) lay in 75,000 155mm artillery rounds (about ten days’ consumption at present), 500 GPS-guided artillery shells, 1,000 mine-laying 155m shells, and an unspecified number of rockets for the HIMARS system. It is interesting that the announcement included 200,000 rounds of small-arms ammunition. To its domestic audience 200,000 may look like a large number. In fact it is sufficient to supply a single battalion for a single day in active fighting.
Overall the quantity of arms to be supplied is sufficient only for a short and geographically small attack phase. Ukraine still has ample reserves of men willing and able to attack, but is not equipped to sustain intense overwhelming attacks over time.
It is possible to see that conclusion working in events around Liman, where Ukraine’s advance has effectively stopped. The idea that Russian defences are about to collapse either in Kherson or along the whole Contact Line is optimistic to say the least.
It is, though, equipped and manned to deliver new localised attacks at intervals of perhaps one to two months. In this it is considerably assisted by excellent intelligence on Russian dispositions provided by US satellite data, supplemented in southern Ukraine by intelligence sourced from US airborne radar-fitted aircraft currently flying daily missions over the Black Sea. US reconnaissance drones may also be operating closer to the Contact Line, though we have no actual evidence of that at present.
The successes won by Kyiv over September are largely a function of that good intelligence, of a numerical superiority in men and of a willingness to take high casualties. Ukraine’s numerical advantage is about to shrink.
Last week Moscow announced a partial call-up. An interview with General Shoigu revealed that “1-1.1%” of Russia’s 25mn men with a year of conscript experience will be called up. So far some 200,000 men have attended conscription centres. Reports indicate that 75,000 men have volunteered, but it is not clear whether these have been counted within that 200,000, or are in addition.
Some proportion of those 200,000 – 275,000 will inevitably fall out of the training cycle for reasons of fitness or competence. A balanced forecast is that we may expect to see at least 180,000 reasonably proficient men joining Russia’s Orbat starting within a month from now. Isolated reports suggest that some have already joined forces on the Contact Line.
8 UKRAINE Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com