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Opinion
November 23, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
COMMENT: Western sanctions against Russia: decision year in 2019 or 2029?
Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research in Vienna
Ever since sanctions were imposed on Russia following its annexation of the Crimea in 2014 there has been constant speculation on when the US and EU sanctions will be lifted again.
There have been numerous surveys asking if there could be an easing in the upcoming 12 months. From time to time the number of analysts saying it was possible rose as high as believing there was a 40% chance that the EU sanctions at least could be eased in the next year.
Lifting sanctions in the US is clearly going to be more difficult, but there too following the election of US president Donald Trump at the end of 2016 and start of 2017 the polls increased to 50-60 %
of respondents saying at that time the USA could relax the sanctions imposed on Russia. But in reality the western sanctions regime remains unaltered and if anything continues to get harsher.
In addition, over the last 2-3 years there have been several “windows of opportunity, in which Russophile countries led relevant international bodies or organisations. There was the OSCE presidencies of Germany and Austria in 2016 and 2017, or the current EU Council presidency of Austria, which have been opportunities to change Europe’s mind on the Russian sanctions, but none of these have brought any change.
Most recently the new government in Italy has actively been calling for an improvement in EU- Russia relations, but that too has turned out to be a very limited effort, despite comments to the contrary.
When will the west lift sanctions on Russia?
Ultimately, all self-interested western politicians have recognised that not much political capital can be gained from the issue of relaxing western sanctions against Russia at the national or international level - especially as long as there is no progress in bringing peace to Eastern Ukraine.
But the noisy rhetoric continues. In the last few months even, some Russophile western "bridge- building" states have emphasized the high de- gree of alienation between the west and Russia. One reason for this is that even states such as Germany and Austria have been affected by Rus- sia’s alleged wiretapping, hacking and espionage activities and as a result the talk of easing sanc- tions has dropped away again. Germany has also accepted the non-commercial implications of the delicate NordStream2 project. France legitimizes its demands for a European army with the need to protect itself against great powers, including Russia. Indeed, following fresh outrages such as the attempt to kill ex-spy Sergei Skripal and the controversial elections for new governments in the breakaway regions in Donbas last weekend, if anything, there are calls for even more sanctions. In addition, the focus has increased on Russia's supposed interference in political agendas in the EU or in (potential) EU candidates in the Balkans.
In this respect, it is not surprising that there are currently no more "sanction-loosening surveys" among market players. Many analysts seem to have underestimated the dominance of the status quo. And the status quo dominates in sanctions and on the ground in Eastern Ukraine. As things stands it seems increasingly likely that the west’s