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Opinion
November 23, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 23
economic sanctions of on Russia are likely to remain in place at least for the average length of less successful western sanctions regimes (less successful in the sense of its original goals): at least 8-10 years, perhaps even much longer.
The Donbas elections annoyed the west, but
the looming key presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine next year are a lot more serious and Russia is already suspected of meddling. As a result it seems likely that 2019 will also pass without any progress towards lifting sanctions.
It is therefore all the more interesting that 2019 could be a very decisive year.
Everything will depend on the outcome of the elections in Ukraine. If, for example, President Poroshenko is voted out of office, there is at
least an increased chance that Russia might be interested in a face-saving way out of the situation (spoiler alert: UN Mission for Eastern Ukraine). This is not at all impossible as according to a
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) polls released on November 13 Poroshenko is in third place with a 10% approval rating versus frontrunner Yulia Tymoshenko’s 21%.
Russian president Vladimir Putin would love
to make a name for himself as a "dealmaker" similar to the title Trump claims for himself. In such a scenario, it would be conceivable that the
EU would once again seriously address the issue of lifting Russia's sanctions. Business lobbies across western Europe are extremely keen to see an end of sanctions as Russia remains a big and profitable market in Europe for them.
If there is some sort of deal between Russia and
a new leadership in Ukraine then relations with the west will not be repaired as fast as the Krem- lin made up with Ankara, following their recent diplomatic bust up in 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian bomber over the Turkey-Syria boarder. Relations between Russia and Turkey were per- haps even tenser than with Europe currently, but Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin are not encumbered with the same adherence
to Europe’s liberal values as other leaders to the west that allows for a lot more moral flexibility and opportunistic rapprochement.
The alienation between the EU states, the EU institutions and Russia is much deeper than between Turkey and Russia. Moreover, the relationship between the "big and little" brother is much clearer in the Russian-Turkish relations than in the case of the EU and Russia.
All in all, 2019 could be a "test year" for Russia's willingness to find a face-saving way out of the Ukraine conflict. And if not, then the western sanctions, including the ones by the EU, could probably remain in place well into the 2020s, perhaps even until 2029.