Page 76 - RusRPTApr21

6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
The government has significant funds left over unspent from last year. The government plans to have a lower deficit of 2.5% of GDP (RUB2.7trillion) this year vs. 3.9% of GDP in 2020 thanks to higher oil prices ($45.3/bbl vs. $42.3/bbl in 2020).
Higher taxes for the general population and commodity producers could compensate for lower taxes in the IT sector. Sova Capital estimates that a baseline scenario for 2021 ($61.8/bbl and a RUB/$rate of 71.8) could ease the fiscal deficit to 0.2% of GDP thanks to the additional RUB2.4trillion in extra oil and gas revenue.
Additional spending, which could come in the form of additional COVID-19 relief packages for the general population (RUB500bn) and businesses (RUB200bn), could bring the fiscal deficit to 0.8% of GDP.
Funding from non-oil revenue comprises unspent funds from 2020 (RUB1trillion). However, this money could also go to reducing borrowings this year. The authorities might choose a mix of the two using the unspent proceeds.
Russia’s consolidated budget had a RUB644.899bn deficit in January– February. Budget revenue stood at RUB2.755 trillion and spending at RUB3.4 trillion.
76 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com