Page 77 - RusRPTApr21

The Ministry of Finance has reported a RUB0.59 trillion deficit for February alone.
Spending started strongly in 2021, increasing +RUB0.48 trillion y/y in February.
Revenues in February were almost level with last year (-0.9% y/y), with a pick-up in nonoil & gas revenues (+ RUB53bn, +8% y/y) having offset the shortfall in oil & gas proceeds (RUB-63bn, -10% y/y).
Non-oil & gas revenues being up +8% y/y, adjusted for inflation, hints at the economy
being close to the pre-pandemic levels.
MinFin guides for a budget deficit of RUB2.8 trillion this year, which relies on the assumption of Urals averaging $45.3/bbl.
VTBC estimates the budget deficit could be shallower: with an average 2021 Urals price at $55/bbl and a steeper recovery in crude oil extraction, it could be as low as RUB1.5tn, of, which up to RUB0.6 trillion could be covered by funds carried over from 2020, resulting in a possible reduction of the borrowing plan by the same amount.
Key budget indicators, RUB bn
RUB bn
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Minfin's plan for Minfin's plan for 2021, % 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 2021* GDP
Federal budget balance
Revenues
Oil & gas Non-oil & gas
Expenditures
-572 -173
1,30 1,289 8
341 405 966 883
1,88 1,462 0
-88 -40 -706
- -56 -589 -2,755 1,69
6
-2.4%
16.2%
5.2% 11.1%
18.6%
Jan-21 Feb-21
-3.4% -0.9% -20.3% -10.4% +6.7% +8.1% -4.0% +35.5%
Revenues
Oil & gas
Non-oil & gas
Expenditures
Source: Ministry of Finance, VTB Capital Research
77 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021
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1,52 1,92 1,38 893441
447 475
1,08 1,45 14
454 929
453 491 545 5,987
1,74 1,00 706 12,778 13
1,61 1,96 2,08 799000
Source: Ministry of Finance, VTB Capital Research; * according to the federal budget law Table 2: Key budget indicators, % YoY
2,19 1,50 1,25 18,765
3,89 1,56 1,84 21,520
% YoY
Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20
Nov-20 Dec-20
+2.1% +1.5% -22.9% -31.2% +21.3% +15.8% +48.1% +18.3%
-31.9% -27.8% -14.0% +17.9% -48.4% -35.2% -25.6% -29.0% -23.3% -23.9% -8.2% +50.2% +28.2% +15.8% +18.4% +25.6%