Page 29 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2023

Ukraine’s harvest fell by about a third from normal levels in 2022
due to land lost to Russia and the destruction of land and
machinery. .

A third of Ukraine’s corn crop still stood in the fields as winter set
in. The war, constant blackouts and the record autumn rainfall that has
muddied fields have hit Ukrainian farmers’ harvesting efforts.
Additionally, the war has decreased how much farmers can fetch for
their goods. As well, strikes on the country’s infrastructure have limited
the availability of electricity needed to dry soggy grain, reported
Bloomberg.

While Russia’s invasion has curbed exports, Ukraine remains the
world’s fourth-largest corn shipper and significantly affects global
supply. The grain can still be collected into spring, although the
prospects for its quality and quantity are ebbing.

The US Department of Agriculture cut its Ukraine corn crop outlook to
27mn tonnes on December 9, down by 4.5mn tonnes, citing relentless
autumn rains in three key regions. That would be a five-year low. The
United Nations predicts an even lower forecast of 24mn tonnes.

Russia has stolen or destroyed $1.9bn worth of agricultural
products in Ukraine. An estimated 2.8mn tonnes of grain and 1.2mn
tonnes of oil seeds have been destroyed or stolen because of Russia’s
war against Ukraine, according to the Centre for Food and Land Use
Research of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).

After the successful counter-offensive in September Ukraine has
recovered a large amount of its agricultural land, but some of the
country’s most fertile land remains inside Russian occupied territory or
in the battle zone.

The structure of planting crops will change in Ukraine in 2023. In
2023, the cultivated grain crop area in Ukraine will amount to 8.7mn
hectares, 22% less than in 2022 and 45% less than in 2021. At the
same time, the sown oil crop area is forecast at 9.7mn hectares, which
is 32% higher than the figure for 2022 and 9% more than the figure for
2021, the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club predicts.

This trend is defined by the fact that the share of logistics in the price of
grain crops has risen significantly in 2022. The Agrarian club predicts
that in 2023 the gross harvest of grain may amount to 34mn tonnes,
which is 37% less than in 2022 and 60% less than in 2021. The export
potential of grain and oil crops next year will be about 35mn tonnes, or
3mn tonnes per month. In the 2021/22 marketing year, it was at 85mn
tonnes of grain and oilseeds, or 7mn tonnes per month.

29 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com